Bitcoin Surges 3.7% to $105,490 as Israel-Iran Ceasefire Boosts Market

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged past the $105,000 mark, prompting a trading expert to predict that the cryptocurrency could reach $130,000 within a few weeks. This forecast is based on Bitcoin's rebound from its one-day Exponential Moving Average 100 (EMA), a key trend line that has historically marked the beginning of major bull runs. The rebound coincided with a de-escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict following a ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump.

The EMA100 has been a critical support level since Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022. Each major rally since then has either originated from or touched this moving average, triggering strong upward moves. Bitcoin dipped slightly below the EMA100 in the first bullish wave before rallying to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. The second wave bounced directly off the EMA100 and reached the 1.618 level. In the third leg, the price came close to the trend line before surging toward the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.

Bitcoin is currently forming a fourth bullish channel, mirroring previous patterns. Each rally has produced progressively higher Fibonacci peaks, suggesting the current move could surpass the 2.0 level of around $168,000. However, the analysis offers a more conservative near-term target of $130,000, aligned with the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which could be reached by early August 2025.

Another analysis by Ted Pillows suggests that Bitcoin’s current price behavior indicates that every major Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) event has historically marked the asset’s bottom, often preceding strong recoveries. Key events such as the 2023 Silvergate liquidity scare, the 2022 FTX collapse, the 2024 Japan Carry Trade unwind, Trump’s tariff announcement, and the recent U.S.-Iran conflict have all aligned with significant price lows. With signs of de-escalation in global tensions, especially the recent ceasefire, Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom or is nearing it.

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $105,490, up 3.7% in the past 24 hours, while in the past week, the asset gained 1.1%. Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is near the current price of $105,175, indicating short-term stability and potential accumulation. The 200-day SMA at $87,556 confirms a sustained uptrend. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 51.90 shows neutral momentum, suggesting room for further gains without overbought pressure.