Bitcoin Surges 3.5% Weekly Amid Geopolitical Easing

As the second half of the year approaches, markets are predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to trade near its current levels. Notably, Bitcoin has regained bullish momentum as investors have reacted positively to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency is now targeting the $110,000 resistance level. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $107,346, up nearly 0.5% in the past 24 hours and 3.5% over the past week.

On the prediction front, traders on a crypto-based forecasting platform are betting that Bitcoin will likely trade above $108,000 on July 1. Current market data assigns a 40% chance of BTC closing the day above that level, making it the single most probable outcome. Probability estimates have shifted slightly in recent days. The odds for the $108,000 and above bracket have risen by about 5% compared to earlier in the week. The data shows a distribution of likely outcomes for July 1. After the $108,000 mark, the next most probable range is close between $106,000 and $108,000, with a 29% chance. Other ranges trail behind, with $104,000 to $106,000 at a 20% chance, $102,000 to $104,000 at a 9% chance, and below $102,000 given just a 3% chance.

If Bitcoin reclaims the $108,000 level, it could pave the way toward a new all-time high, possibly as early as next week, according to some analysts. For instance, on June 28, an analyst noted in a post that Bitcoin appears to be entering a Wyckoff accumulation phase, which has historically preceded major rallies. His analysis projects a move toward $176,000 in the coming months, supported by bullish macroeconomic factors, including U.S. stocks hitting record highs, rising global M2 liquidity, and renewed confidence following recent U.S. trade deals. He noted that key technical levels to watch include $106,220 (an accumulation zone) and $125,200 (a breakout threshold). Therefore, sustaining price action above these levels could trigger a significant rally.

The bullish sentiment is not limited to short-term predictions. Analysts have noted that the price could remain around the $107K region, which it traded around for most of the week. After a strong consolidation, the BTC price is expected to see further gains. The S&P 500’s record high has fueled optimism for Bitcoin, with rising correlation increasing the chances of a BTC breakout. BTC’s TPO chart shows strong demand, with key resistance at $109,650—clearing this could pave the way for $112K+. Bullish technicals, including 50-SMA support, rising RSI, and AO momentum, suggest a new all-time high is likely unless BTC loses $100K. Bitcoin is teetering just below its peak at $107,249, less than 5% away from reclaiming its $112,000 all-time high.

The Time Price Opportunity (TPO) chart for Bitcoin highlights key levels to watch. The naked Point of Control (nPOC) formed at $109,650 on the June 11 trading session is the key resistance level to watch. On the contrary, the buy tails at $104,347 and $103,463 are key support levels. Considering the S&P 500’s recent climb to an all-time high and rising correlation between the index and Bitcoin, the chances of an uptrend are high. Moreover, the failure to produce a lower low during the ongoing consolidation adds credence to the demand and forecasts BTC price could revisit the nPOC at $109,650.

The daily Bitcoin price chart shows clear signs of bullish momentum that further hint a new all-time high is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when.’ The key characteristics that paint this optimism include the 50-day SMA at $105,844, which has prevented a breakdown over the past five days. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has produced a green histogram above the mean level, indicating a shift in momentum favoring bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above its mean level, indicating a market dominated by buyers. The declining parallel channel’s upper trend line will face a retest for the third time, with traders expecting a breakout. A decisive daily candlestick close above $107,858 will confirm the said breakout and potentially propel BTC price to $112,424, which is a conservative target and is present just above the current all-time high of $112,000. A move to $116,923 would signal a new record high for BTC.

The 2025 Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish, with calming geopolitical tensions, a spike in September rate cut odds, and a buyer-skewed daily BTC chart. Therefore, investors can expect a new all-time high for BTC soon. However, traders need to be careful as a breakdown of the $100,000 psychological level would invalidate the aforementioned bullish outlook. This development could trigger a flurry of panic sell orders, potentially leading to a liquidation cascade and catalyzing a swift correction to $96,852 and $93,375. These two levels served as a base that propelled Bitcoin price up by nearly 20% to $112,000. Hence, investors can expect a short-term relief between $93,000 and $97,000. A dire case scenario could see the BTC price revisit $90,000, where an unfilled buy-side imbalance is present, reaching up to $87,000.

Predictions on a platform shifted dramatically bullish on June 22, with 61.2% of users expecting BTC to hit $115K before it dips to $95K. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could see significant gains in the coming months, with some analysts predicting that it could hit a price of $13 million in the long term. However, these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, as they are based on various factors and assumptions that may not materialize.