Bitcoin surges 3% to $111,300 on derivatives inflows, technical breakout

Bitcoin's price has surged over 3% in the past 48 hours, reaching near $111,300. This upward movement has led to a test of the upper range of its recent consolidation. As the price approaches the upper Bollinger Band and horizontal resistance at $112,400, there are early signs of exhaustion. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can secure a breakout above this resistance or if bulls will step back, allowing for a short-term correction.

Bitcoin has broken out of a two-week ascending triangle, supported by a strong trendline from late June. The breakout above $110,000 was accompanied by a volume spike, pushing the price into the $111,300–$111,600 region. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is approaching the upper Bollinger Band at $112,377, with the price currently facing rejection near this line. The EMA cluster (20/50/100/200) is fully stacked beneath the price, showing a healthy bullish alignment. The nearest dynamic support now lies at the EMA20 near $108,100, with further support from the EMA50 at $105,770.

Key horizontal supply zones from earlier in May and June converge around $112,400, which has now flipped into a decisive resistance barrier. Without a strong close above this level, the rally may stall. The reason behind Bitcoin's price increase today is largely driven by strong derivatives inflows and technical breakout momentum. According to the latest data, derivatives volume surged 71.75% to $97.11B, open interest jumped by 8.05%, reaching $79.3B, and funding rates remain positive at 0.0036%, reflecting long-biased sentiment. Binance top trader long/short ratio hit 1.5, indicating aggressive long positioning.

The 30-minute chart shows a symmetrical triangle breakout near $111,200, with VWAP currently holding just below the price at $111,192. Parabolic SAR dots have flipped below the price, adding to the bullish confirmation. However, caution is warranted. On the 4-hour chart, the price has touched the upper channel resistance of a rising wedge while indicators like RSI begin to flatten. Immediate resistance lies at $112,226 (pivot R4) and $112,500, where confluence zones may trigger profit-taking.

The Supertrend indicator on the 4H chart remains bullish with support at $108,287, confirming the breakout structure. This support also aligns with the previous range top near $108,000, now a potential retest zone. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows +DI (26.8) leading -DI (8.5) with a rising ADX (21.6) — a combination that supports an active uptrend, though not yet at peak strength. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are widening again, with the price hugging the upper band. This typically indicates trend continuation, but overextension here may also trigger a temporary fade if volume does not follow through.

In the next 24 hours, Bitcoin price needs to close decisively above $112,400 to confirm a sustained breakout. If bulls succeed, the price could accelerate toward $114,900, the next R5 pivot resistance and upper channel boundary. However, failure to hold current levels may bring a pullback to the $109,000–$108,200 support cluster. This zone includes the lower trendline, Supertrend support, and horizontal levels seen in the July 7–9 accumulation phase. As long as Bitcoin holds above $108,000, the trend remains constructive. But traders should monitor volume closely, especially as short liquidations dry up and momentum indicators flatten.