Bitcoin Surges 29% Year-to-Date Reaching $122,600 on Institutional Demand and Regulatory Clarity

On the night of July 14, Bitcoin's price surged past the $120,000 mark, reaching an unprecedented high of over $122,600. This significant milestone was driven by substantial institutional investments and regulatory advancements, which have fueled a strong rally in the cryptocurrency market. The rally in Bitcoin's price coincides with a pivotal week in legislative circles, as lawmakers are set to debate several bills designed to give digital assets a clearer regulatory status. These proposals aim to provide a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

The surge in Bitcoin's price has also been fueled by optimism around crypto regulation and institutional demand. The assets under management of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT exceeded $84 billion, reaching that volume in 200 trading days, while the GLD gold ETF took 15 years to do so. This indicates a growing interest from institutional investors and the increasing regulatory clarity are driving the rally in Bitcoin's price, as investors rush to price in regulatory breakthroughs and intensifying political support from policymakers.

Since April, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US amounted to $16.2 billion. More than 6% of the entire market capitalization of digital gold is now concentrated in these instruments, which indicates deep conviction among institutional investors. The rally in Bitcoin's price has also been driven by the growing interest from institutional investors, who have been increasingly investing in Bitcoin ETFs. The inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached record levels, with asset managers continuing to scale up their exposure.

Analysts have noted that the growing interest from institutional investors and the increasing regulatory clarity are driving the rally in Bitcoin's price. The price of Bitcoin rose as much as 1.5% in trading to hit a new all-time high of $121,207.55. It was last quoted at $120,856.34, bringing its year-to-date gains to 29%. The total digital asset market now stands at approximately $3.78 trillion.

The market is also reacting to positive expectations from "crypto week" in the US. Lawmakers will consider several key bills, including the CLARITY Act, which should delineate the authority of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets, and the GENIUS Act, which creates a legal framework for stablecoins. The growing alignment between pro-crypto policies, macro uncertainty, and the increasing accessibility of regulated investment vehicles is rapidly solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset.

According to the analyst's forecast, experts expect the uptrend to continue. The price of Bitcoin will reach $125,000 within one to two months. A more optimistic forecast was given by OSL's chief commercial officer. He believes the asset could rise to $130,000–150,000 by the end of the year. Ledn CEO John Glover said that the price of Bitcoin will reach $136,000 by the end of this year. He believes that the rally of the first cryptocurrency has a basis for continuation. According to him, the breakthrough of the recent highs confirmed the completion of the corrective movement. Glover sees the June drop to $96,000 as a pullback of “wave (ii)” within the larger “wave 5”. Ledn's CEO noted that the ultimate target for the end of the bull cycle has not changed, but the timeline has shortened. Previously he expected it in the first quarter of 2026, but now it looks like we will reach $136,000 by the end of the year.

Data from the network points to the potential for further upside. The NUPL metric for long-term holders is at 0.69, below the euphoria threshold of 0.75. The market spent 228 days above that mark in the last cycle, only 30 days in the current cycle. Activity on the Bitcoin network also remains moderate. The average number of daily transactions has risen to 364,000, but this is well below the peaks of 530,000–666,000 seen at past market tops. There are no signs of active coin selling in the market. This reinforces both the fundamental and technical bullish signal. Hoarding addresses that only buy Bitcoin have increased activity by 71% over the past month. They now hold 250,000 BTC—the highest since 2024.

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen thinks that the first cryptocurrency has transformed from a technology asset to a macroeconomic one—a hedge against US budget problems. He believes the recent $5 trillion increase in the national debt ceiling and rising budget deficits are strengthening the cryptocurrency's position. No one is talking about blockchain options anymore. Bitcoin has become a defense against uncontrolled budget deficits. Along with gold, it is now the main line of defense against the looming financial crisis, Thielen said.