Bitcoin Surges 29% Year-to-Date Reaching $120,000

Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant surge in value, reaching new heights in a short timeframe. The cryptocurrency's price has shown remarkable growth, with a 9.83% increase over the past week, reaching $107,483 on July 4. This upward trend continued, with Bitcoin surpassing $120,000 for the first time, marking a historic milestone and achieving over 29% gains so far this year. The cryptocurrency's momentum has been fueled by several factors, including a crypto-friendly political landscape, increased investment in Bitcoin ETFs, lower interest rates, a weaker U.S. dollar, and investments from Bitcoin treasury companies.

The political climate has been particularly favorable for Bitcoin. The Trump administration's focus on advancing innovation in the marketplace has led to the dropping of multiple crypto lawsuits. Additionally, the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a stockpile of Bitcoin owned by the U.S. government, was established in March 2025. The passage of the Genius Act, a bill to regulate the stablecoin industry, could further legitimize the cryptocurrency market and attract more investors.

Increased investment in Bitcoin ETFs has also played a significant role in the cryptocurrency's recent surge. The first Bitcoin ETFs received SEC approval in January 2024, making Bitcoin more accessible to institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin ETFs have seen a surge in investments since April, with net inflows crossing $50 billion on July 10. This trend is expected to continue, with analysts predicting that Bitcoin will reach a price of $200,000 by the end of the year, driven in part by ETF inflows.

Lower interest rates have also been a tailwind for Bitcoin. In the past, low-interest-rate environments have coincided with bull runs for the cryptocurrency. Analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates during the second half of this year, which could further drive investment in Bitcoin.

The value of the U.S. dollar has also been a factor in Bitcoin's recent surge. Generally, Bitcoin and the dollar have been inversely related, with a decline in the dollar's value leading to an increase in Bitcoin's price. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is already down 10% on the year, largely due to economic uncertainty related to the Trump administration's import tariffs. If the Fed decides to cut interest rates, the dollar could decline even more, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin.

Investments from Bitcoin treasury companies have also contributed to the cryptocurrency's recent surge. These companies use debt or stock shares to raise money and buy Bitcoin that they then hold on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy is the most well-known example, with over 597,000 Bitcoin. In the second quarter of 2025, 125 public companies were holding Bitcoin, purchasing a record high of 159,107 Bitcoin, a 23% increase from the previous quarter.

Despite Bitcoin's recent success, it remains a risky asset. The price could plummet at any time, and investors should only make it a small portion of their investment portfolio and be ready to ride out the ups and downs. Additionally, factors such as a declining DXY and a rising M2 money supply could even push BTC to surpass $150,000. According to the analyst's forecast, Dr. Andre Dragosch anticipates a loftier peak, referencing a historical model that has previously predicted market tops. He mentions that if the model and historical data serve as accurate guides, Bitcoin could reach $140,000 to $150,000 in a short time frame.