Bitcoin Surges 29.2% in Q2 Amid Geopolitical Developments and Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has been experiencing significant price fluctuations. According to analyst Faibik, Bitcoin (BTC) may briefly dip to the $97,000–$98,000 range before surging towards $130,000. This prediction comes as Bitcoin approaches a key Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone around $99,000–$98,000 on the daily timeframe. The recent price movements have been influenced by various factors, including geopolitical developments and market speculation.

Bitcoin's price has shown resilience, surging back above $106,000 after a weekend dip below $98,500. This rebound was fueled by a "total ceasefire" announcement between Israel and Iran, which eased investor anxiety. Additionally, growing speculation about a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has added fuel to the crypto rally. Traders are now considering whether Bitcoin could reach $110,000 or if new global risks might keep prices volatile.

Despite the brief price dip, Bitcoin’s derivatives market remained firm. The rapid price movement led to liquidations of leveraged long positions, but the total open interest in Bitcoin futures stayed steady. Such pullbacks are not unusual and mirror similar drawdowns seen in the past 30 days. The hashrate of Bitcoin, which measures the computational power of the network, dropped by 8% between Sunday and Thursday. This decline raised questions about mining operations, particularly in regions affected by geopolitical tensions. However, analysts warn that regional data is often unreliable and fluctuations can be tied to weather disruptions in the United States.

Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday after briefly reaching $77 per barrel, while the S&P 500 index gained 1%, signaling renewed market confidence. Traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut before the end of the year, which could make risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive. The swift return of Bitcoin above $106,000 suggests strong institutional conviction in the cryptocurrency, even amid global uncertainties. Recent market behavior shows Bitcoin’s increasing role as a macro-sensitive asset, one that investors are watching closely.

Bitcoin has posted a solid 29.2% gain in Q2 so far, with April seeing a 14.2% return, May a 11.1% return, and June so far a 1.90% return. In May, Bitcoin climbed from $94,177.90 to touch a monthly high of $111,704 on May 22. However, after hitting that peak, BTC retraced 9.11% between May 23 and June 5. A brief rebound of 8.61% followed between June 6 and 10, but the price couldn’t break the previous swing high. Between June 11 and 22, Bitcoin dipped again by 8.46%, only to bounce 1.2% in the last 24 hours, hinting at possible renewed momentum.

Crypto analyst Faibik revealed that Bitcoin is forming a classic bullish flag pattern—a continuation setup that often signals the next leg of a bull run. “Before the next surge, BTC may briefly dip to the $97K–$98K range,” says Faibik. “Once it breaks past the $108K resistance, the rally toward $130K is likely.” The bullish flag pattern features a strong upward move (the flagpole), a slight downward or sideways consolidation (the flag), and a breakout above the flag’s upper boundary signals continuation of the trend. Bitcoin’s key levels to watch include a support zone at $97,000–$98,000, a breakout level at $108,000, and a midterm target post-breakout at $130,000. Experts agree that a strong daily close above $108K will confirm the bullish breakout and could open the doors to the much-anticipated six-figure surge.

Crypto analyst Chainbull and several BTC enthusiasts echo Faibik’s prediction, believing that the current dip is a healthy consolidation before the next leg up. If Bitcoin follows the expected pattern, a breakout to $130K could become the dominant narrative going into Q3. The charts suggest Bitcoin isn’t done yet. A short dip could lead to a major breakout—and BTC could be heading to $130K sooner than expected.