Bitcoin Surges 28% to New All-Time High Above $120,000

Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $120,000 for the first time. This remarkable 28% increase for the year so far has been driven by geopolitical tensions and technical factors. As the US prepares to release its next inflation report, analysts are closely monitoring the situation, as it could either fuel or halt the rally.

Ledn’s CEO, John Glover, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $136,000 by the end of the year if current trends continue. This prediction is based on the growing institutional inflows, rising ETF demand, and increased safe-haven interest due to trade-driven factors.

The rally began when Bitcoin surpassed $120,000 following the announcement of 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico imports by the US. Historically, trade friction has driven risk-off sentiment into crypto assets like Bitcoin, which is seen as digital gold and a portfolio diversifier. This catalyst came just as Bitcoin was clearing a brief consolidation and resetting overbought signals that had been indicating fatigue.

By midday, Bitcoin was trading above $121,000. Markets are now awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later this week. Analysts are estimating 0.25% for June’s CPI (2.6% annual) and 0.3% for core CPI (3% annual). For Bitcoin, weakness in inflation could lead to more Fed rate cut expectations and more upside. An unexpected hot print could slow down the rally as risk assets sell off. Traders and experts are watching short-term interest rate futures for changes in real-time inflation expectations, an important indicator for Bitcoin’s short-term path.

John Glover, CEO of Ledn, sees this as an Elliott-wave confirmation. According to Glover, “The dip to $96K in late June was the wave (ii) pullback … while this doesn’t change the target of circa $136K … but it does likely reduce the time it will take to complete.” His target moved from Q1 2026 to year-end, showing how technicals can accelerate the narrative. Institutional adoption and strong ETF inflows add to this forecast.

Experts believe Bitcoin’s institutionalization remains solid. According to multiple ETF trackers, inflows are still coming in with billions flowing into the top products weekly. US regulation is also supportive, issuing no hostile legislation as of now. On the liquidity side, central bank balance sheets are still high and equity markets are at all-time highs so risk appetite is still strong even with inflation concerns. A weaker US dollar backdrop could also boost crypto-denominated assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the upside, there are several variables that could kill the move. A hotter CPI could delay rate cuts and kill risk appetite. Trade tensions from new tariffs or supply chain shocks could re-ignite volatility. On-chain, a sudden influx of exchange inflows or whale selling could send Bitcoin back to $100,000 levels. Also, a geopolitical shock greater than current trade tensions could send Bitcoin into chaos.

As we approach the inflation report, Bitcoin’s trend will be determined by the print’s deviation from expectations. If CPI is in line or comes in cooler, the market might see a rally to $136,000 potentially exceeding that target into early 2026 as institutional demand and liquidity remain strong. A hot CPI could still see short term consolidation around $115,000-$120,000. But Glover and technical models suggest any dip could be temporary and healthy and reinforce the bullish long term view.

Bitcoin has a new all-time high above $120K with 28% YTD as geopolitical uncertainty and technical momentum drive the move. Analysts including Ledn CEO John Glover believe the rally has legs to $136,000 in 2025 with Elliott wave confirmation and growing institutional inflows. But the upcoming US CPI print poses upside or downside risk. If inflation cools, Bitcoin will accelerate, if not the market will take a breather.