Bitcoin Surges 27% in April, Validating PlanB’s S2F Model

Bitcoin concluded the month of April at $94,181, marking a significant rebound from its earlier low of $74,000. This recovery aligns with the projections of PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which forecasts Bitcoin’s price based on its programmed scarcity. The cryptocurrency’s 27% monthly gain in April’s final close reinforces the relevance and accuracy of the S2F model during the current market cycle.

PlanB, the creator of the S2F model, had previously predicted a “dump before the pump” pattern. In March, he highlighted that Bitcoin’s February close at $84,321 would be followed by a dip before a surge. This prediction has materialized, with Bitcoin dropping in early April before surging toward the month’s close at $94,181. PlanB’s colored-dot chart, which plots monthly closes, shows that V-shaped recoveries are a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price history, suggesting that such sharp rebounds are predictable features of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.

Ask Aime: Why did Bitcoin rebound so strongly in April, and is this a predictable pattern?

PlanB, a respected analyst, has dismissed the notion of an incoming bear market. He noted that Bitcoin’s 200-week arithmetic and geometric means have remained closely aligned for over a year, indicating low volatility and a steady upward trend. He suggested that this consolidation phase could pave the way for further growth, possibly doubling from $80,000 to $160,000 in 2025. According to his market cycle analysis, a true bear market follows a strong bull rally, something he believes hasn’t fully occurred yet. Reaffirming his bullish outlook in April, PlanB emphasized that his on-chain indicators still reflect a bull market phase, describing the recent correction as a “normal bull market dip” rather than a transition into distribution or a bear phase.

Supporting PlanB’s perspective, on-chain data reveals that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has just formed a “golden cross” by crossing above its 1-year Simple Moving Average. Historically, this specific technical formation has consistently preceded periods of strong bullish momentum for BTC price, pointing to a potential shift in broader market sentiment. With Bitcoin’s price rebounding and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, market observers see a potential for an extended rally into the coming months.