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Bitcoin Surges 27% to $104,900 on U.S.-China Trade Optimism

Coin WorldMonday, May 12, 2025 4:15 am ET
1min read

Bitcoin's price surged to $104,900 over the weekend, nearing its all-time high, after positive developments in U.S.-China trade talks sparked optimism across markets. This progress, announced by Donald Trump, boosted investor confidence in Bitcoin, driving its price to within 4% of its previous peak.

Crypto analyst PlanB, known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, predicts that Bitcoin could reach $400,000 in the coming months. PlanB's analysis is based on on-chain data and historical market cycles, which suggest that the current bull market is far from over. He believes that Bitcoin's recent V-shaped recovery from $82,000 in late March to over $104,000 indicates a strong bullish momentum.

PlanB's on-chain market cycle model showed no signs of a typical end-of-cycle distribution phase in March. Instead, the data pointed to continued bullish momentum. Drawing from past patterns, he expects Bitcoin to push past its previous all-time high of $110,000 soon, with several new highs likely to follow in succession. The S2F model predicts that as Bitcoin becomes more scarce, its price will rise. Historically, after each halving, a red dot appears on the chart, often signaling the start of a strong bull run.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, and PlanB predicts it will soar above 80 for several months, a pattern seen in past bull runs. He boldly claims that “we’ll see this happen again, which could drive Bitcoin’s price up to $400,000 in just a few months”. This fits with the stock-to-flow model, which suggests Bitcoin could hit $500,000 per coin by the end of the current halving cycle. The 200-week moving average has risen from $46K to $47K, signaling increased market confidence and possibly the start of the “FOMO phase.”

Additionally, realized prices are trending upwards, with short-term realized prices at $92K and the two-year at $77K, indicating most Bitcoin holders are in profit, supporting a strong market. Analysts’ forecast suggests that with just a few high-momentum months, Bitcoin could reach $400K, putting it well within striking distance of the stock-to-flow average. He emphasizes that while models can be wrong, they’re often useful, and all indicators now point toward a potentially historic 2025 for Bitcoin.

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