Bitcoin Surges 22% to $103,842, But Long-Term Holders Unimpressed

Bitcoin's price has surged to $103,842, marking a significant rally from $85,000. However, this price increase has not translated into heightened conviction among long-term holders. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders has remained stagnant at 0.69, indicating a lack of enthusiasm despite the price surge. This disconnect suggests that while the price of Bitcoin is rising, investor sentiment is not keeping pace.

One factor contributing to this muted sentiment is the maturation of December 2024 buyers into long-term holders. As these new holders enter the market, they dilute the overall unrealized profit share, which can dampen the enthusiasm of existing long-term holders. Additionally, whales have been actively selling their holdings, with over 30,000 BTC sold in the last 72 hours. This aggressive trimming of positions by large holders further indicates a lack of confidence in the short-term upside of Bitcoin.

The Large Holders Netflow has also seen a significant drop, falling 176.22% over seven days and 71.25% over 30 days. This data suggests a pattern of distribution rather than accumulation, as large holders reduce their exposure to the market. If this trend continues, it could weaken the short-term momentum of Bitcoin despite its higher valuation.

Nearly all Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, with over 94.88% of addresses holding BTC above their cost basis. While this reflects strong profitability, it also introduces distribution risk. Historically, such extremes have often preceded periods of correction, indicating that the chance of broader sell pressure remains elevated. If holders rush to lock in profits, they could increase the supply on the market, potentially leading to a price correction.

Bitcoin derivatives markets show higher activity but lower conviction. Futures Volume rose 36%, while Options Volume climbed 45%. However, Futures Open Interest rose only 1.5%, and Options Open Interest actually dropped 5%. This highlights speculative trading without strong long positioning, as traders remain cautious despite active engagement. The current momentum lacks the deep leverage commitment seen during major rallies.

Stablecoin buying power is growing, with the Exchange Stablecoin Ratio rising 4.49% to 0.00005. This indicates increased reserves, suggesting that capital is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a better entry. However, this capital has not yet entered Bitcoin markets, and the buildup remains potential, not realized. If Bitcoin dips, stablecoins could flood in to support the price. But without that trigger, the demand remains inactive.

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has jumped 116.67% to 43.5K, highlighting the deepening impact of the halving-induced supply shock. If demand returns with strength, this reduced supply could amplify price action quickly. However, without new inflows, this bullish structure remains underutilized. Investors should track this metric closely as it reflects Bitcoin’s intrinsic long-term value.

In summary, while Bitcoin shows strength in price, it exhibits weakness in conviction. Long-term holders are muted, and whales are selling. Derivatives metrics reflect uncertainty, and stablecoins signal readiness but not deployment. Only scarcity supports the long-term case. Therefore, the rally’s sustainability depends on renewed demand absorbing selling pressure and validating current price levels.