Bitcoin Surges 21% as Tariffs Spark Safe-Haven Shift

The crypto market exhibited positive signs in the latter half of April 2025, with several divergence signals indicating a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins. Divergence, a key concept in data analysis, occurs when the values of two metrics shift in opposite directions compared to their previous trend, often signaling a change in price momentum. Based on expert analysis and market data, five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—were identified to help investors better understand the market outlook.

Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) have moved in opposite directions. However, from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction. This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy, and the inverse relationship seems to have returned. Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. In April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000. This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs. Joe Consorti predicted that "Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining."

Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks. Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment. However, in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic. He said, “Bitcoin divergence” and “Bitcoin decoupling” will be dominant headlines for 2025.” Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.

Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak. In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound. IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted that “Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase.”

Divergence signals also appeared for altcoins, indicating a positive short-term outlook. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision, pointed to a key divergence using the “365-day new lows” indicator. This metric tracks how many altcoins hit their lowest point in the past year. In April 2025, although altcoin market capitalization dropped to a new low, the number of altcoins hitting new 365-day lows decreased significantly. Historically, this pattern often precedes a recovery in altcoin market caps. Jamie Coutts said, “Divergence shows downside momentum was exhausted.” In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is weakening. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

Another technical divergence comes from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D), noted by analyst Merlijn The Trader. This chart reflects Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization. Merlijn said, “Bearish Divergence Spotted on BTC.D. Higher highs on the chart. Lower highs on RSI. This setup doesn’t lie. Altcoin strength is brewing. Watch for trade setups.” This pure technical divergence suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a strong correction. If that happens, investors may shift more capital into altcoins. The altcoin market cap (TOTAL3) rebounded by 20% in April, from $660 billion to over $800 billion. The divergence signals discussed above suggest that this recovery could continue.