Bitcoin Surges 20% This Year, Hits $114,000 on Institutional Demand

Bitcoin has surged past $114,000 for the first time, marking a significant milestone in its price history. This breakthrough has sparked optimism among traders, who are now eyeing a $120,000 target before the end of the month. The surge in Bitcoin's price has been driven by a combination of factors, including increased long-term holder accumulation and a bullish market sentiment.

Traders on Deribit are already piling into contracts that bet Bitcoin will hit $120,000 before the month ends. This optimism is reflected in the surge of open interest around strike prices of $115,000 and $120,000, with longer-term options aiming even higher to $140,000 in September and $150,000 by December. This rally comes as Bitcoin logged its second day of a record-breaking surge, driven by institutional demand and political expectations. Bitcoin is already up 20% this year, alongside the S&P 500, which has soared 30% from its April lows.

The rally has been fueled by a significant short liquidation event, with approximately $447 million in positions liquidated. This event followed the biggest short liquidation since May 7, indicating that bears had built up too much exposure and the market punished them. The wipeout slowed down slightly afterward, with only $76.5 million in liquidations taking place in the following 12 hours. This shift shows that traders who bet against the rally were forced out, and the rest leaned even harder into the upside.

The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetuals remains positive, indicating that traders are paying to stay long. This is one of the clearest signs that bullish bets are dominating the futures market. The rally on Thursday had an extra kick with Donald Trump going on Truth Social and dropping a series of pro-crypto posts. Coming from the sitting president, it only added to the already bullish tone. Investors are banking on his administration to ease the pressure on crypto regulation, and his public stance is feeding that narrative.

The rally is also being driven by corporate buyers. A wave of crypto treasury companies is loading Bitcoin onto their balance sheets. These firms are selling shares or issuing debt to get the funds, trying to turn themselves into Bitcoin proxies for public markets. This is all happening while tensions rise globally. Trump’s administration is preparing tariffs set to drop in August, adding more stress to an already tense trade environment. However, Bitcoin isn’t flinching. Institutions are treating BTC as a macro hedge and a maturing asset class. July will test markets, but Bitcoin looks built for it.

Prediction markets are buying into that view. Polymarket currently gives Bitcoin a 76% chance of hitting $115,000 by the end of July. With equities roaring again, risk assets have momentum on their side. But in crypto, it’s Bitcoin that’s leading the charge. A well-known crypto analyst has highlighted the current market conditions as being too bullish for shorting Bitcoin to make sense. The analyst, who goes by the name CrediBull Crypto, has stated that it is now practically "illegal" to short Bitcoin, emphasizing the high risk involved in such a strategy. This sentiment is backed by the fact that Bitcoin has shown strength over the past week, with a 1.26% gain despite a slight dip of 0.59% in the last 24 hours.

The analyst's prediction is based on an Elliott Wave pattern, known as the W-X-Y structure. In this setup, wave W may have already ended below $99,000, and wave X is expected to peak above $114,000. After this, wave Y could break Bitcoin out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, targeting prices above $120,000. The analyst also mentions the possibility of further gains toward $136,000 and even as high as $154,000 if the momentum continues. That would represent a gain of over 42% from the current level.

There is also an even more optimistic scenario. According to the analyst, it’s possible that Bitcoin has already begun its next major impulse wave. In this alternative Elliott Wave count, Bitcoin has completed wave 1, is currently forming wave 2, and could be ready to enter wave 3. This wave is often the strongest in any Elliott Wave pattern. If Bitcoin breaks above the $111,941 resistance level, it could surge to $128,000 in wave 3, followed by brief consolidation in wave 4, and finally push up to around $149,000 in wave 5. That would mark a 37% gain from where the price stands now.

The analyst believes the downside for Bitcoin is limited. He emphasizes that the current trend strongly favors the bulls, and trying to short Bitcoin under these conditions is highly risky. The lower demand zone, between $67,000 and $74,000, acts as the worst-case support level if the market sees a sharp drop. But with current trends, such a deep correction seems unlikely in the short term. Backing up the bullish case is on-chain data that shows more long-term holders are accumulating Bitcoin. Addresses holding BTC for over one year increased by 1.02%, while short-term holders declined. “Cruisers,” who hold Bitcoin for 1 to 12 months, dropped by 1.48%, and “traders,” who hold for less than a month, fell by 2.76%. This shift from short-term speculation to long-term investing suggests growing maturity and confidence in the Bitcoin market.

The analyst’s view that it’s “illegal” to short Bitcoin is a strong way of saying that the reward for shorting is too low compared to the risk. With the market structure showing strength, especially after consolidating above $100,000, short positions could quickly be wiped out if prices break out again. The analyst encourages traders to look for long opportunities instead, especially with key resistance levels within reach and upside momentum building. For Bitcoin to confirm the bullish breakout, it must first clear resistance at $111,941. If it does, the next targets would be $120,000, then $128,000, and possibly $149,000. These levels align with both technical chart patterns and increasing investor confidence. Even if Bitcoin faces short-term pullbacks, the support zones and long-term holder data suggest the asset is in a healthy uptrend.

In summary, market signals and price patterns suggest it is no longer a good idea to short Bitcoin. Analysts are confident that the next big move is likely upward. With long-term holders increasing and short-term traders stepping away, the stage is set for another leg of Bitcoin’s bull run. Traders who attempt to bet against Bitcoin may find themselves caught on the wrong side of the market. The message is clear: shorting Bitcoin at this point may not be illegal by law, but it certainly is by strategy.