Bitcoin Surges 20% to $122,871, Market Cap Hits $2.4 Trillion

Bitcoin has surged to new heights, reaching an all-time high of $122,871 before retreating slightly below $120,000. This price surge has propelled Bitcoin’s market capitalization to an impressive $2.4 trillion, making it the world’s fifth-largest global asset, surpassing Amazon. The recent price action follows almost two months of consolidation, which is now described as “ancient history” by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton.

Stockton, in an interview, shared her bullish outlook based on measured move projections from the recent breakout. She expects the previous uptrend to continue before any corrective phase occurs, putting Bitcoin at around $135,000 as an intermediate-term objective. Other analysts have echoed similar price targets, with 10x Research head Markus Thielen projecting Bitcoin could reach $133,000 based on the July 10 breakout signal, which has historically led to an average 20% rally over the following two months. Thielen added that he expects some near-term consolidation, followed by a push toward $133,000, with a $160,000 year-end target still firmly in sight.

The current rally appears to be primarily driven by institutional capital rather than retail investors. Strategy acquired another 4,225 BTC on Monday, bringing their total holdings to 601,550 BTC. Bitcoin spot ETF inflows recorded $1 billion on back-to-back days between July 10-11, matching the record set in January 2024 when spot ETFs were newly launched. This is an incredibly bullish signal, especially given the environment this is happening in, as retail buyers are nowhere to be seen yet. This rally is still driven by institutional capital. Typical signs of retail involvement such as soaring search traffic and rising crypto app rankings remain absent, suggesting retail investors are unlikely to enter the market until prices reach around $150,000 and the FOMO kicks in.

On-chain metrics reveal both promising signals and potential warning signs for Bitcoin’s short-term price action. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the percentage difference in BTC prices on Coinbase versus Binance, has remained positive for the past two months, indicating strong U.S. investor interest, though the premium is not yet at peak levels seen during previous rallies. Net long positions on Bitcoin futures on centralized exchanges are approaching the $100 million mark, suggesting buyers may have the power to drive prices higher in the short term. However, there are some cautionary indicators. The taker buy/sell ratio is skewed heavily toward buyers, with the 7-day moving average at 1.03. Historically, when this metric approaches 1.04, Bitcoin has experienced short-term pullbacks or sideways price action. Another potential concern is the flow of stablecoins out of exchanges, which could signal decreasing buying power in the market. Despite these mixed signals, Bitcoin broke above a seven-year trendline that has acted as strong resistance since 2018. This breakthrough is considered a highly bullish development by market watchers. LVRG Research director Nick Ruck remains optimistic, stating that investors are still looking at $150,000 as the next major price level to reach during this cycle, pending no sudden black swan events.

Bitcoin’s current price movement has increased its market share among global assets, though it remains small compared to traditional asset classes like gold, equities, real estate, and bonds. As of the latest data, Bitcoin holds the sixth rank among the largest assets by market capitalization at $2.385 trillion, surpassing Alphabet at $2.2 trillion.