Bitcoin Surges 20% to $105,000 as Iran-US Tensions Ease

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $105,000 mark as tensions between Iran and the U.S. ease, with a ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump. This development has bolstered market sentiment, with several cryptocurrencies, including VIRTUAL, JUP, and SEI, experiencing gains of over 20%. The path of least resistance appears to be upward, supported by the ceasefire optimism and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency is exploring the use of crypto holdings in the mortgage qualification process, further boosting market confidence.

Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financial is planning to go public through a merger with Columbus Circle Capital, focusing on bitcoin asset management and revenue generation. This move, along with growing institutional demand signaled by ETF inflows, indicates a strong vote of confidence for long-term upside in the crypto market. The U.S. Federal Reserve has also removed the concept of "reputational risk" from its formal bank supervision program, potentially easing crypto banking restrictions. VMS Group, a multifamily office with nearly $4 billion in assets under management, is considering a $10 million allocation to strategies managed by decentralized finance hedge fund Re7 Capital.

In traditional markets, the dollar index fell to 98, extending Monday's sell-off, while the price of gold dropped to its 50-day simple moving average at $3,318. Nasdaq futures chalked out a golden crossover, offering bullish cues to the crypto market. However, unconfirmed reports of fresh aggression by Tehran and a response from Jerusalem introduce a note of caution, as the risk of renewed tensions remains elevated.

Several governance votes and token events are scheduled for the coming days. ApeCoin DAO is voting on whether to sunset the decentralized autonomous organization and launch ApeCo, a new entity established by Yuga Labs. Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold, and the Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card. Additionally, several token unlocks and launches are scheduled, including the unlocking of 1.79% of Optimism's circulating supply worth $15.48 million on June 30.

Ethereum developer Barnabé Monnot proposed EIP-7782, which aims to halve slot times from 12 seconds to 6 seconds to boost network speed and user experience. Faster blocks mean faster confirmations, with more frequent data updates for wallets, DeFi apps, and L2s, potentially improving DeFi efficiency. However, the proposal also comes with potential drawbacks, including bandwidth pressure, validator performance issues, and network instability if poorly implemented. The proposal targets the 2026 Glamsterdam upgrade, which focuses on gas optimizations and protocol-level speedups across the Ethereum blockchain.

In the derivatives market, cumulative open interest in BTC standard and perpetual futures listed worldwide dropped to 650K BTC on Monday, the lowest since May 18, before bouncing slightly early today. ETH futures showed similar trends. BNB, BCH, and DOT see negative funding rates in a bias for bearish short positions in perpetual futures markets, while BTC and ETH funding rates held moderately positive. SHIB, ETH, and HBAR have seen the most growth in the positive cumulative volume delta, implying net buying pressure. On Deribit, put skews have weakened at the front-end, with ETH puts still pricier than BTC. Block flows on OTC network Paradigm have been mixed.

In the crypto equities market, Galaxy Digital Holdings will have its Nasdaq listing denominated in U.S. dollars rather than the Canadian-dollar-denominated listing on the TSX, effective June 30. Several other crypto-related stocks, including Strategy, Coinbase Global, Circle, MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, Core Scientific, CleanSpark, CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF, Semler Scientific, and Exodus Movement, have seen varying levels of pre-market activity.

Spot BTC ETFs saw a daily net flow of $350.6 million, with cumulative net flows reaching $47.0 billion and total BTC holdings at approximately 1.23 million. Spot ETH ETFs saw a daily net flow of $100.7 million, with cumulative net flows reaching $4.0 billion and total ETH holdings at approximately 3.98 million. These flows indicate growing institutional interest in crypto assets.