Bitcoin Surges 2.4% to $110,000 on US-Vietnam Trade Deal

Bitcoin's price surged past $110,000 following the announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and Vietnam. This agreement, which includes a 20% tariff on all imports from Vietnam to the U.S., has injected optimism into the market, leading to a 2.4% increase in Bitcoin's value by 09:56 ET (13:56 GMT). The broader cryptocurrency market also experienced gains, with Ethereum rising by 6.3% and other altcoins showing modest increases. The improved sentiment was further supported by weak US payroll data, which raised hopes for a July rate cut.

Over the past week, Bitcoin had been trading within a narrow range of $105,430 to $108,706, awaiting a significant event to break the stalemate. The trade deal provided the necessary impetus, pushing Bitcoin past the previous resistance zone of $108,000. This surge in price has brought Bitcoin within 3.5% of its all-time high, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains intact.

This development suggests increased optimism among investors, potentially impacting broader market volatility as BTC leads a six-day crypto rally. The broader equity markets have similarly responded positively, indicating interconnected market trends. Observers note the historical influence of trade agreements on crypto prices. Potential outcomes include regulatory changes and altered trading strategies, reflecting a cautious stance from investors pending macroeconomic clarity.

Previous trade agreements have stimulated synchronized rallies in crypto and equities, notably in the US-UK and US-China deals. Bitcoin often acts as a market sentiment proxy, reacting strongly to such announcements. Experts predict ongoing volatility as traders adapt strategies. Potential impacts may include shifts in derivative market dynamics and increased option flows. Historical data supports these predictions, offering a basis for cautious optimism.

However, the market remains cautious as several high-impact US economic data releases are scheduled for the week. The ADP private payrolls report, released on Wednesday, showed a surprise decline of 33,000 jobs in June, marking the first monthly contraction in two years. This weakness in the labor market has raised concerns about a broader economic slowdown and has kept risk appetite in check. Investors are now awaiting the official non-farm payrolls data, expected to confirm the cooling trend in employment, with forecasts suggesting around 110,000 to 120,000 new jobs added in June and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3%.

The market will also be watching the ISM services PMI and the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for further clues on the Fed’s policy direction. Additionally, the looming July 9 deadline for the White House’s tariff decision could reintroduce volatility across risk assets if trade tensions escalate. Until there is more clarity on the macro front, traders are likely to remain sidelined. Further weighing on sentiment, US spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a 15-day inflow streak on Tuesday with $342.2 million in net outflows, marking the first sign of institutional pullback after over $4.7 billion poured in since June 9. Retail traders often view this as a bearish sign.

Despite the cautious sentiment, market commentators on X are expecting a retest of all-time highs soon. However, some analysts caution that if Bitcoin fails to maintain strength above $108,900, a key short-term pivot, the current rally could turn into a deviation. In that case, a rejection from this zone may set the stage for a deeper pullback, with downside targets extending toward $102,000 as liquidity below recent lows gets exposed.

The total market cap of all altcoins rose 3.2% to $1.29 trillion over the past day. Large-cap altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, and Cardano saw gains ranging between 1 and 5%. Meanwhile, Celestia, Sonic, and SPX6900 led gains, rising 6.6%, 6.1%, and 5.5% respectively. Celestia's gains were driven by the successful deployment of its latest mainnet upgrade, Lotus, on the Mocha testnet. Sonic's gains were supported by the launch of new merchandise in partnership with Formula 1 star Pierre Gasly and the announcement of the Sonic Summit 2025. SPX6900, a popular memecoin, jump-started a rally after Binance.US hinted at a potential listing.