Bitcoin Surges 15% to $85,050, Eyes $88,000 for Bullish Confirmation

Bitcoin has recently broken through the $84,000 resistance level, exhibiting technical patterns reminiscent of past bull runs. Key weekly indicators, such as the 50-day moving average support and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70, align strongly with historical cycle patterns. Analysts are now closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can achieve a daily close above $88,000, which would serve as a crucial confirmation of this bullish trend.

Bitcoin's current cycle mirrors the structural resets observed in 2017 and 2021. Market indicators, including the relationship between Bitcoin and market volatility, as well as the total crypto market capitalization on weekly charts, show alignments similar to those seen during previous significant market shifts. These past adjustments acted as resets before subsequent major upward trends began.

Historically, Bitcoin's price has followed a repeating multi-year structure. Strong upward movements driven by widespread excitement eventually end in steep price drops, sometimes exceeding 80% from the peak. Following these major drops, quieter periods emerge where long-term investors steadily accumulate Bitcoin, laying the groundwork for the next significant climb. Examples include the lows reached around $200 after 2013, near $3,000 after 2017, and around $16,000 following the 2021 peak.

The 2025 structure shows a familiar rhythm: after topping above $100,000, Bitcoin dropped sharply to below $80,000 due to macroeconomic stress and heightened geopolitical risks. This pullback has brought prices into zones where significant buying emerged in past cycles, potentially preparing the ground for the next upward trend.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $85,050, recovering from recent lows of $74,436. On the 4-hour chart, the price has pushed above the descending trendline, now facing immediate overhead supply between $84,200 and $85,700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 59.58, indicating moderate buying energy without the market being excessively overheated. Fibonacci retracement levels offer clearer targets: $85,700 (0.786), $88,700 (1.0), and $97,600 (1.618), with potential upside to $111,900 (2.618) if the trend continuation is confirmed.

A daily close above $88,000 remains the critical threshold for bullish validation. On the downside, key support levels sit at $82,000, followed by $79,900 and $77,800. The market structure, coupled with on-chain indicators and historical cycle patterns, suggests Bitcoin may be entering a pressure build-up phase ahead of another expansion. However, confirmation will depend on the strength of the breakout above $88,000 and the sustained return of institutional buying. If history repeats, Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 might already be underway.