Bitcoin Surges 12% to USD 112,000 on Institutional Investments

Bitcoin's performance in June 2025 has been characterized by notable volatility and a sustained upward trajectory, propelled by robust institutional investments and a favorable political environment. The cryptocurrency surpassed the USD 100,000 mark in May, hitting a new all-time high of USD 112,000 on May 21st. This surge was driven by substantial inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, growing institutional acceptance, and a supportive U.S. political climate. However, the momentum waned in the subsequent days, with Bitcoin retreating to around USD 103,000. Despite this pullback, Bitcoin remains well above the crucial USD 100,000 threshold.

Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin is poised to reach a price target of approximately USD 125,000 to USD 130,000 in the coming weeks. The weekly chart displays a large cup-and-handle formation, signaling a bullish trend. The weekly Stochastic indicator is in overbought territory, but the bulls still need to push the upper Bollinger Band higher. Short-term consolidations or sharp but temporary pullbacks are possible, as the bulls still have significant work ahead. The daily chart shows a short-term pullback towards USD 103,127, with the maximum price target for this pullback lying between approximately USD 103,000 and USD 97,500. The Stochastic oscillator is nearing oversold territory, and once the turning has been achieved, the probabilities for a rise to around USD 125,000 by early summer remain strong.

Market sentiment, as reflected by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has reversed from the lows of early April. The index currently stands at 56 out of 100, indicating a slightly optimistic market sentiment. However, there is still room before it becomes clearly excessive. The seasonal outlook for Bitcoin remains positive until mid-June, with the next two to four weeks potentially bringing strong price gains. Altcoins may continue to rise slightly longer than Bitcoin, but if U.S. stock markets follow their classic “Sell in May” pattern, momentum could begin to wane rather soon.

The Bitcoin/Gold ratio has shifted in favor of Bitcoin, with one Bitcoin currently buying about 31.8 ounces of gold. The ratio has risen sharply to 32 over the past seven weeks, and if gold prices remain roughly at USD 3,300 and Bitcoin reaches the price target of around USD 125,000, a Bitcoin/Gold ratio of approximately 39–40 would be achieved. This indicates that Bitcoin’s outperformance against gold is likely to continue despite elevated volatility.

The global bond crisis, particularly Japan’s Yen weakness and high inflation, as well as the U.S.’s record debt levels, enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset. Japan’s economic crisis, marked by a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 250% and a shrinking working-age population, serves as a warning signal for other developed nations. The Bank of Japan is increasingly losing control, torn between fighting inflation and recession. The global money supply surge in response to the COVID-19 pandemic triggered inflation again, but attempts to raise interest rates led to the collapse of the Yen carry trade in August 2024, shaking global markets.

The aggressive strategy of Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy, along with its imitators, is a key driver of the Bitcoin boom. Through the “42/42 Plan,” Saylor aims to raise USD 84 billion by 2027 via stock issuances and convertible bonds to buy more Bitcoin. This relies on risky financial instruments, including mispriced convertible bonds with unrealistically low volatility assumptions and yield-generating stocks that lack sustainable returns. Hedge funds exploit this mispricing through volatility arbitrage, buying the bonds, shorting the stock, and profiting without direct interest in Bitcoin. This artificial demand is likely to drive Bitcoin prices higher for now, but the end of the rally is not yet in sight, and a full-blown buying panic is likely still to come. We currently expect this in the fall or Q4 2025.