Bitcoin Surges Past $105K, Long-Term Holders Accumulate

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently surged past a crucial resistance zone, sparking speculation about its next major milestone, potentially reaching $110,000. Bullish technical patterns and on-chain data suggest a promising outlook for BTC, although there are some caveats to consider. A recent report indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are not distributing their holdings, suggesting a quiet accumulation phase. The lack of spikes in dormancy flow reduces sell pressure from old coins, which could be a bullish signal for the token.

Data from Glassnode shows that the BTC long-term holder (LTH) spending binary indicator has minimal spending for the first time since June 10. With LTH supply near all-time highs at around 14.7 million BTC, this signals conviction among seasoned investors who remain reluctant to distribute despite recent market volatility. Previously, minimal long-term holder selling occurred post-March 2020, setting the stage for explosive rallies.

Bitcoin volatility has dropped below that of gold for the first time ever, signifying a historic shift in finance. This suggests that BTC is maturing and the market is recognizing it as a stable store of value. As adoption grows and institutional confidence deepens, BTC could start to behave less like a wild rollercoaster and more like a stable store of value. As BTC price reclaimed $105K, and funding rates turned negative, there has been a classic set up of a short squeeze. With shorts piling in, history suggests an upward move could be imminent for Bitcoin.

In the long term, the BTC price has approached a crucial resistance zone, suggesting a major breakout is underway. Previously, when the price reached the final resistance zone between $69,400 and $72,150, the weekly CMF dropped below the average and triggered a rebound, similar to what happened before the Q4 2024 rally. The weekly MACD, which was on the verge of undergoing a bearish crossover, has displayed a bullish divergence. Therefore, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is expected to accumulate along the resistance zone for a couple of weeks until the buying volume intensifies, followed by a breakout to a new ATH.

Analysts predict that Bitcoin has a 75% chance of reaching a new all-time high (ATH) based on its recent price action, which has shown strong bullish momentum. This prediction is supported by the fact that Bitcoin has surpassed $85,000, a level that has historically been a strong resistance zone. However, some analysts predict a potential dip to $92,000, while others anticipate a surge to $135,000. This divergence in opinions highlights the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future price movements. Despite the differing views, the overall sentiment remains bullish, with many traders expecting a significant breakout in the near future.

The current market structure includes a clearly identified bullish channel that recently broke out upward. This breakout typically indicates a continuation of bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of testing the all-time high. Such technical patterns, coupled with institutional liquidity dynamics, strengthen this scenario. The concept of price magnets further supports this bullish outlook. Price magnets refer to specific price levels or zones that appear to attract price action. In the current scenario, the all-time high serves as such a magnet. Higher liquidity naturally accumulates at psychologically significant and historically notable price points, like all-time highs or round numbers. Traders place more orders at these levels, driven by various strategies like profit-taking, entering new longs upon breakout confirmation, or short-covering. The psychological impact and self-fulfilling dynamics of these key price levels further enhance their magnetism.

Given the recent bullish breakout, there are no significant reasons or signals supporting a bearish reversal at this moment. The market's reaction to geopolitical developments further underscores this bullish stance. Notably, price movements often precede official announcements or broader market awareness, reinforcing the adage that "price knows." Traders considering short positions at this juncture should exercise extreme caution. The market structure and current momentum strongly suggest upward movement, at least towards the all-time high. Closely monitor key support levels for risk management and potential stop-loss placements. Utilize professional analytical methodologies—such as volume profile analysis, POC, and VAH—to better gauge market dynamics rather than relying solely on traditional moving averages or candlestick patterns. Always trade and invest at your own risk, applying rigorous risk management practices and disciplined execution.