Bitcoin Surges Past $100K Amidst Volatility and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has surged past the $100,000 milestone, marking a significant achievement in its ongoing bull run. This latest development comes amidst a backdrop of intense market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, which have shaped the cryptocurrency's trajectory over the past year.

Bitcoin's recent price action has been characterized by a series of dramatic swings, with the cryptocurrency experiencing both sharp declines and rapid rebounds. The most recent episode occurred on February 3, when Bitcoin's price plummeted below $92,000, triggering a staggering $2.1 billion in liquidations. This sell-off was largely attributed to concerns surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff war with Mexico and Canada, which raised fears of an economic downturn.

However, Bitcoin's resilience was evident as it quickly rebounded following the initial drop. The pause on tariff announcements and the scheduled speech by President Trump's Crypto Czar, David Sacks, on February 4, seemed to reassure the market. The Fear & Greed Index, which had briefly dipped to 44 (fear), surged back to 72 (greed), reflecting a shift in market sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Analysts have been closely monitoring Bitcoin's price action to identify potential market tops. Historical trends suggest that every past BTC bull market has peaked within 330 days of surpassing the previous all-time high. With February 4 marking day 328, some investors are questioning whether Bitcoin has already reached its peak and is about to enter a downtrend.

Despite these concerns, Bitcoin's demand remains strong, consistently absorbing pullbacks even at historically high levels above $90,000. Glassnode analysis of Bitcoin's bull market drawdowns suggests that demand for BTC could rise, possibly triggering the market's "second euphoric phase." Historical data shows that in the past three cycles (2011-2015, 2015-2018, and 2018-2022), corrections averaged around 25%, followed by an acceleration in price performance during the final third of the bull run. The current bull market is yet to experience such an acceleration.

On the supply side, a key metric to watch is the Long/Short