Bitcoin Surges 10% to New All-Time High of $111,880

Bitcoin surged past its previous all-time high in the USD and USDT markets on Wednesday, reaching a peak of $111,880. This rally continued into Thursday, but it did not spark the same level of euphoria among traders as seen in previous price surges. Derivatives traders, in particular, showed a muted reaction compared to past Bitcoin price rallies.

Analysts from 10xResearch and Amberdata agree that the recent gains in Bitcoin are driven by spot market strength rather than speculation. Despite Bitcoin's rally beyond $111,000, the long/short ratio across top derivatives exchanges remains above 1, indicating bullish sentiment but not to the extent seen in previous cycles like 2017 and 2020, when the ratio exceeded 2.

In the last 24 hours, $175 million in shorts liquidations and over $47 million in long positions were liquidated, suggesting that bearish traders are being penalized for betting against the Bitcoin price rally. However, the key question remains: how high will Bitcoin go?

Bitcoin futures open interest chart shows a significant spike in open interest, with derivatives contracts in Bitcoin crossing a total of $78 billion in open interest on May 22. This increase in open interest alongside the Bitcoin price signals strength in the BTC uptrend, indicating that traders are confident of further gains.

The funding rate has been positive since May 8, with consistent green bars in the funding rate chart showing how derivatives traders are positioning themselves for further upside in Bitcoin. A positive funding rate supports a bullish narrative, suggesting that gains are expected.

Ethereum, on the other hand, struggles to attract institutional inflows despite its price rally alongside Bitcoin. Altcoins in the top 50 cryptocurrencies ranked by market capitalization are in the green, rallying in the last 24 hours. Ethereum's on-chain data shows a slight increase in open interest, less than 7% in the last 24 hours. In the same timeframe, the long and short liquidations in Ethereum were nearly the same amount, above $60 million.

The long/short ratio across top derivatives exchanges for Ethereum is less than 1, even as options volume surged nearly 60%. There is no clear indication of a bullish or bearish bias among Ethereum’s derivatives traders. Ethereum derivatives data analysis shows the largest altcoin lags behind relative to Bitcoin in terms of interest and activity from derivatives traders.

The open interest chart for Ethereum shows that even as ETH breaks past $2,600, the open interest lags levels previously seen in January and February 2025. A successful implementation of the latest technical upgrade failed to fuel a bullish sentiment among traders and catalyze gains in the altcoin.

The Fear and Greed Index Chart shows that even as Bitcoin enters price discovery, the levels of “Greed” observed in November 2024 were the highest. Trader sentiment is not as euphoric as one might expect, with the index reading 73 at the time of writing. Extreme greed is typically correlated with cycle peaks or yearly tops. Above $110,000, Bitcoin is still lagging in terms of bullish sentiment among traders. This may be a positive sign as it supports the thesis that the cycle top is still away and traders are likely waiting and watching for the next pullback and rally in BTC.

Bitcoin’s target is the $122,000 level, which coincides with the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of its 50% rally from April 7 low to May 22 peak. BTC is currently less than 10% away from its target, and technical indicators on the daily price chart support the likelihood of further gains. RSI is sloping upwards and crossed into the “overvalued” zone, and MACD flashes consecutive green histogram bars. If Bitcoin tests resistance at $122,000 and breaks past this level, the next target at $127,352 comes into play.

The $127,352 target is the 141.4% Fibonacci retracement level for Bitcoin in its ongoing upward trend. While analysts at Bernstein pushed their target for Bitcoin to $200,000 in 2025, it is likely that BTC crosses the $127,000 level before June 2025, based on its gains since April 2025.

Shubh Varma, the CEO of Hyblock Capital, noted that from a technical perspective, the most reliable support zone is between $101,000 and $102,500. Exchanges have seen “heavy open interest entries that trap shorts and attract fresh longs” in this zone. Bitcoin pushed above resistance between the $105,000 and $106,000 level early on Thursday. It remains to be seen how long Bitcoin holds above the FVGs on the daily timeframe.

Bitfinex analysts noted that the team is watching minor liquidity walls between $114,000 and $118,000 and the $123,000 to $125,000 zone is where large options open interest is building. These are key areas of interest for traders to watch in the coming weeks of May 2025.