Bitcoin Surges 1.7% to $107,040 on Iran-Israel Ceasefire

Bitcoin has surged past the $106,000 mark following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This development has significantly eased geopolitical tensions, leading to a renewed sense of optimism in the financial markets. The U.S. President's declaration of a "total ceasefire" has shifted trader focus towards the potential for Bitcoin to rally towards $110,000, although lingering downside risks remain a concern.

The ceasefire has alleviated fears of further military escalation and potential global oil supply shocks. Markets had largely anticipated de-escalation, as evidenced by the falling oil prices even after Iran targeted U.S. bases. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was up by 1.7% in the past 24 hours, reaching $107,040.

Market analyst Crypto King noted that Bitcoin is poised for further upside momentum due to negative funding rates. Negative funding rates indicate that short traders, who bet on price declines, are dominant and are paying long traders to hold their positions. This suggests that more traders are shorting Bitcoin in the perpetual futures market, setting the stage for a potential short squeeze.

Another trader, Crypto Andy, opined that the $105,000 zone would determine whether Bitcoin will experience the next leg up to the $110,000 zone or face a deeper retest. The tightening of Bollinger Bands, a classic sign of incoming volatility, adds to the uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s return to the $105,000 zone marks a pivotal bullish inflection point. The $105,000 level stands as a strong support zone, and Bitcoin not only reclaimed but rebounded off this zone, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average near $103,818. This signals renewed conviction among traders and sets up a classic breakout-fill-continue pattern, according to technical analysts.

Macro tailwinds, such as anticipated Fed rate cuts later in 2025 and a softer U.S. dollar, historically boost crypto’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Bitcoin’s recent climb above $105,000 came alongside dovish signals at the last FOMC meeting and improving inflation trends. Additionally, surging institutional flows and strategic adoption, such as indirect Bitcoin exposure via MicroStrategy and the U.S. government’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, lend legitimacy to Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset.

Analysts expect Bitcoin to climb to $120–$125,000 by mid-2025, with institutional voices projecting $150–$250,000 by year-end. On-chain and sentiment indicators, such as active addresses and the Fear & Greed Index, confirm a bullish backdrop. Breaking above $105,000 transforms a key resistance into support, shifting market psychology decisively positive. The $107–108,000 range becomes the next target, with eyes on $112,000+ all-time highs.

As long-term holders step aside and new inflows arrive, downside risk is limited, suggesting a structured climb rather than a parabolic spike prone to crash. Bitcoin’s return above $105,000 might be the linchpin needed to unlock the next upward phase. With technical, macro, institutional, and psychological forces reinforcing each other, the momentum is strong. As analysts now set sights on $120,000+ through Q3–Q4, and total institutional caps rise, this zone's reclamation could prove one of 2025’s most decisive bullish signals.

However, it is crucial to monitor the Iran-Israel situation closely, as it has the potential to shape how the financial market progresses in the short term. The ceasefire announcement has provided a temporary boost to Bitcoin, but ongoing geopolitical developments could influence market sentiment and price movements in the coming days and weeks.