Bitcoin Surges 0.6% Amid Market Volatility

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant short-term oscillations this week, with Bitcoin at the forefront. On the first trading day, Bitcoin surged past $123,000 in U.S. markets before retreating slightly. By the market close, Bitcoin had fallen below $120,000, showing a modest 0.6% increase over 24 hours. This volatility was not confined to Bitcoin; other leading cryptocurrencies also faced declines. Ethereum's Ether dropped below $3,000, while Dogecoin, Cardano's ADA, and Stellar's XLM depreciated by 2-3%. Post-market closing in the U.S., a modest recovery was observed in altcoins, indicating a temporary respite from the market's volatility.

Bitcoin's performance over the weekend provided insights into its short-term stability. After a strong week, Bitcoin oscillated between $117,000 and $118,000, showcasing a relatively stable range. This stability was further supported by technical analysis, which indicated a firmly bullish outlook for Bitcoin in both the short and long term. The cryptocurrency successfully broke through key resistance levels, notably at $107,710, suggesting a continued upward trajectory.

The broader cryptocurrency market also faced macroeconomic challenges. With the Federal Reserve's interest rates anchored at 4.25%–4.5%, global growth remained unevenly distributed, and equity markets oscillated between record highs and volatility. These macroeconomic factors contributed to the overall market instability, affecting not only Bitcoin but also other cryptocurrencies.

Despite the short-term oscillations, the long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market remains positive. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, driven by continued bullish sentiment and technical indicators. Ethereum's ETH/BTC exchange rate is also expected to break through key levels, with a short-term target of 0.03 and a higher time frame target of 0.04+ if Ethereum can stabilize above $4,000. This bullish outlook is supported by the market's resilience and the continued interest from investors.

Some major cryptocurrencies showed positive differentiation despite a general weakening across the market. XRP, SUI, and Uniswap’s UNI token increased by 2.5%, 10%, and 6%, respectively. Meanwhile, shares of companies linked to the cryptocurrency market surrendered some of their morning gains. However, shares of MicroStrategy and Galaxy still closed up by 3% to 4%, while Coinbase shares recorded a rise of 1.5%.

The recent sharp increase of more than 10% in Bitcoin and even greater gains in some altcoins prompted discussions about the potential for a short-term stabilization in prices, with some investors possibly engaging in profit-taking. Nonetheless, financial experts suggest that despite the recent rally, the market has not yet peaked. Jeff Dorman, Investment Director at Arca, noted that the ongoing rally is certainly not near previous significant peaks. Dorman highlighted that after the spot Bitcoin ETF in March 2024 or during political developments at the end of 2024 or early 2025, open positions in altcoin derivatives exceeded those of Bitcoin. Currently, such a distribution is not observed in the market.

Eric Demuth, CEO of the Bitpanda exchange, claimed that a core reason for Bitcoin’s price rise is the globally escalating state debts and investors seeking a safe haven against inflation. Demuth mentioned the possibility of BTC reaching 200,000 euros ($233,000) while emphasizing that its adoption holds greater significance than price targets. Demuth posed a critical question: “What happens when Bitcoin becomes permanently included in major investors’ reserves or global banking infrastructure?” He emphasized this process is currently unfolding. According to analysts, in the forthcoming years, Bitcoin’s total market value might gradually match the approximately $22 trillion market cap of gold, which is nine times larger than Bitcoin.

Observations from experts and industry representatives indicate that the current fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets continue amid both short-term selling pressures and sustained investor interest. Trading volumes and open position distributions do not yet definitively signal an overheated market. In the long term, particularly macroeconomic conditions and large investors adding more crypto assets to their portfolios could emerge as decisive factors in Bitcoin’s integration process into the financial system.