Bitcoin Could Surge 300% to $330,000 as Institutional Investors Accumulate

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a tumultuous month, but recent technical analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could surge by another 300% during this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s analysis highlights the AVIV Ratio, a metric that compares Bitcoin’s active capitalization to its total invested capitalization. Historically, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top. For instance, BTC was priced at $1,200 in 2013, near $20,000 in 2017, and around $69,000 in 2021. Currently, the AVIV Ratio remains below these past peaks, suggesting that Bitcoin could climb to at least $330,000 before the +3σ mean deviation condition is met.

The AVIV Ratio provides a unique perspective on market dynamics, reflecting investor activity versus locked-in value. A spike in this ratio often indicates heightened trading or profit-taking, which can precede major price movements. Van Lagen’s analysis ties this to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, where post-ATH rallies have historically delivered significant gains. However, the predictive accuracy of the AVIV Ratio lacks validation in varying market conditions, and volatility remains a significant factor.

Adding to the narrative, data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable shift: Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks have dropped from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors are moving their holdings off exchanges, potentially signaling reduced selling pressure or a shift toward long-term storage. The declining balances at OTC desks this year stem from strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by Strategy’s aggressive buying, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC. Additionally, robust net inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which total $128.18 billion in net value, and BlackRock’s crypto portfolio holding more than $70 billion in BTC, sum up the current intent of major investors in the market.

Similar to Van Lagen’s $330,000 price target, another study by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With outlined a comparable cycle top for BTC. With’s analysis leverages a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model, projecting Bitcoin’s price could reach $220,000 to $330,000 in this cycle. Currently trading around $104,000, BTC would need a 100% to 200% surge to hit these levels, consistent with historical peaks where prices doubled or tripled above the power law trendline. With’s model challenges assumptions of diminishing volatility, showing Bitcoin’s price cycles retain significant swings, as evidenced by steady deviations from the trendline. While optimistic, the researcher cautions that the analysis draws from only four market cycles, urging skepticism.

Likewise, a list of 30 bull market peak indicators from CoinGlass suggests Bitcoin could climb to $230,000, with none signaling a cycle top despite BTC reaching $112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle Top and MVRV show the bull market has room to run, supporting With’s optimistic outlook. This analysis underscores the potential for significant gains in the Bitcoin market, driven by both technical indicators and institutional investment strategies.