Bitcoin Supply Tightens as Long-Term Holders Absorb 19300 BTC Monthly

Long-term holders of Bitcoin have been actively absorbing the cryptocurrency, leading to a tightening supply. This trend is evident as entities holding under 100 BTC have been accumulating coins at a rate that exceeds the monthly issuance. Specifically, these holders have added 19,300 BTC per month, which surpasses the 13,400 BTC per month issuance, effectively absorbing new supply into longer-term holdings. This behavior is indicative of a strategic move by long-term holders to retain their coins, especially when miners are tightening the supply. New buyers, noticing the pullback in exchange balances, are scrambling to acquire more Bitcoin, further contributing to the tightening supply environment.

The continuous decline in exchange balances reflects a preference among long-term holders to retain their coins until a clear price move is observed. This trend is further supported by the surge in demand from ETFs, which are absorbing the current supply. The ongoing short position liquidations are also driving further price increases, as the market dynamics shift in favor of long-term holders. The recent halving event and strong macro tailwinds have also played a significant role in tightening the supply, as the reduction in new Bitcoin issuance has made the cryptocurrency more scarce.

The accumulation of Bitcoin by long-term holders is not limited to entities holding under 100 BTC. Shrimp (<1 BTC), Crabs (1–10 BTC), and Fish (10–100 BTC) are also actively accumulating coins. This widespread accumulation across different holder categories underscores the growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term investment. The tightening supply environment is further demonstrated by the fact that long-term holders refuse to part with their coins, even when they see miners tightening the supply. This behavior is a clear indication of the strong conviction among long-term holders in the future value of Bitcoin.

The tightening supply of Bitcoin is also reflected in the recent surge in its price. The cryptocurrency has seen significant price increases, reaching new all-time highs. This price surge is a direct result of the tightening supply environment, as the reduced availability of Bitcoin drives up its value. The continuous decline in exchange balances and the strong demand from ETFs are further contributing to the price increase, as the market dynamics shift in favor of long-term holders. The recent halving event and strong macro tailwinds have also played a significant role in tightening the supply, as the reduction in new Bitcoin issuance has made the cryptocurrency more scarce.

While watching exchange balances can be helpful, it’s not a definitive indicator of a supply crisis. People move coins off exchanges for many reasons: security, long-term storage, or staking. The more important metric is the behavior of long-term holders. Their increasing absorption of new BTC shows real conviction—and potential for future scarcity. If this trend continues, it may set the stage for a classic Bitcoin surge: not caused by hype, but by fundamentals.

Every day, miners bring a predictable amount of new Bitcoin into circulation. However, long-term holders—those who don’t plan to sell anytime soon—are buying and holding even more than this amount. This means there’s a growing imbalance in supply and demand. As more BTC gets locked away in cold storage or held tightly in wallets, the available supply for active trading keeps shrinking. It’s not flashy, but this slow squeeze builds market tension that can eventually lead to sharp price moves when demand picks up.