Bitcoin Supply Shock Imminent as Halving and Institutional Demand Converge

Bitcoin is once again capturing market attention, this time due to an impending structural scarcity that some of its most vocal advocates are highlighting. Max Keiser, a prominent Bitcoin supporter and advisor to the President of El Salvador, made a significant statement on June 25, 2025, via his X account. He asserted, "I’ve done the math. A Bitcoin supply shock is imminent," accompanied by a rocket emoji, indicating his confidence in the impending event.

The Bitcoin protocol has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. As of the latest data, approximately 19.6 million Bitcoins have been mined, which is about 93.3% of the total supply. This leaves roughly 1.4 million BTC yet to be created. The recent halving event, which occurs every four years, reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Consequently, the daily release of new coins has decreased to approximately 450 BTC per day, down from around 900 BTC before the halving.

This reduction in new supply coincides with a surge in institutional demand. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, billions of dollars have been invested in the asset by institutional entities. Early 2025 data indicates that ETFs, particularly BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, have absorbed large volumes of BTC. As of June 2025, BlackRock leads all ETF issuers with substantial Bitcoin holdings, surpassing even MicroStrategy, which controls over 500,000 BTC.

In January 2024, Samson Mow warned of a double-edged market pressure: a supply shock from the halving and a demand shock from ETF buying. This view is now materializing, as Mow and Keiser argue that market liquidity could rapidly diminish when these forces converge. The growing participation from institutions and retail investors, especially during periods of market uncertainty, supports the idea of a supply shock. On June 24, Bitcoin trading volume exceeded $3 billion in just one hour, indicating heightened market activity.

Bitcoin’s role as a potential store of value is gaining renewed interest amid global instability. The ongoing accumulation by large firms and new treasury entrants, such as Metaplanet and ProCap BTC, co-founded by VC investor Anthony Pompliano, reinforces the notion that Bitcoin is becoming a preferred long-term asset. Keiser’s remarks on June 25, 2025, will be accompanied by a broader analysis of the changing dynamics in Bitcoin supply and demand.

Analysts highlight a structural shift where less Bitcoin is being created and more is being locked away in institutional vaults. This imbalance is already affecting availability on exchanges, where reserves continue to drop. Keiser and Mow’s predictions, while not new, may be accelerating. With less than five million Bitcoin left to mine and the next halving set for 2028, when block rewards will fall again to 1.5625 BTC, the pressure on circulating supply may continue to intensify.

Currently, the data shows demand rising while supply falls. Whether this translates into market movement remains to be seen. However, Bitcoin’s architecture ensures that the supply side will not expand. As of late June 2025, this is no longer just a theoretical discussion—it is becoming visible on the blockchain.