Bitcoin Supercycle Incoming, Says Economist, But There's A Catch

Bitcoin's price has been on a rollercoaster ride since its inception, but a new narrative is emerging: a Bitcoin supercycle. Renowned economist Alex Krüger believes that Bitcoin is highly likely in a supercycle, driven by a dramatic change in the political landscape and the rapid evolution of the crypto industry. However, there's a catch.

Krüger points to President-elect Donald Trump's pro-Bitcoin U-turn and plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve as a significant factor contributing to the supercycle. This shift signals a fundamental change in the crypto industry's perception and acceptance by the state, transforming it from a barely legal pariah to one of the top industries embraced by the state within weeks. This transformation is comparable to the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold, where Nixon's ending of the Gold Standard in 1971 sent gold surging from $35 per ounce to $850 in 1981.

Krüger also highlights the rapid evolution of the Bitcoin and crypto sector, noting that it transitioned from a barely legal pariah detested by the state to one of the top industries embraced by the state within weeks. This rapid evolution suggests that Bitcoin is entering a new phase of growth and adoption, which could lead to a supercycle.

However, Krüger acknowledges that the conditions for a bear market are not yet there, and it's too soon to be expecting a top. Bitcoin bull-runs always last for many months, and it has only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken. While the possibility of a bear market exists, the conditions for it are not yet present.

In conclusion, Bitcoin's trajectory is highly likely to be in a supercycle, driven by the transformation of the crypto industry from a pariah to a top industry embraced by the state. However, investors should remain cautious and not expect a top just yet, as the conditions for a bear market are not yet there. The crypto industry's evolution from a pariah to a top industry embraced by the state has fueled a prolonged period of growth for Bitcoin, leading to a stronger and more enduring upward trajectory than the typical four-year halving cycle. This transformation has also contributed to the conditions for a Bitcoin bull run that is expected to last for many months, with the possibility of a major local top around March, depending on various factors such as the slope of ascent, funding rates, and the broader economy.