Is a Bitcoin Super Cycle Coming? CZ and VanEck Reveal $2.9M Target

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has predicted an imminent 'super cycle' for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. He highlighted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's decision to remove cryptocurrencies from its 2026 priority risk list as a key development. CZ also noted increased institutional purchases, including a $383 million Bitcoin ETF acquisition by Wells Fargo.

VanEck, a major crypto ETF issuer, has set a base price target of $2.9 million for Bitcoin by 2025. This projection assumes Bitcoin could capture 5–10% of global trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050. The firm also outlined a bullish scenario where Bitcoin could reach $53.4 million, and a bear case where it might stall at $130,000.

The growing interest from large financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, which filed for a Bitcoin ETF, signals greater acceptance of crypto in traditional finance. Both CZ and VanEck see rising institutional demand and potential nation-state adoption as key factors for Bitcoin's future growth.

Why Did This Happen?

CZ cited the SEC's decision to delist cryptocurrencies from its 2026 priority risk list as a major positive for the market. This regulatory shift could bring greater clarity and investor confidence. Additionally, Binance founder CZ was pardoned by U.S. President Donald Trump in Q4 2025, and the SEC ended its long-running case against Binance. These events support the idea of a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto.

Institutional demand is also growing. CZ pointed to a $2.45 billion Bitcoin purchase by a 'Satoshi-era whale' as evidence of strong interest. Meanwhile, Capriole Investments reported that institutions have been net buyers of Bitcoin for eight days straight, with purchases exceeding 76% of newly mined supply.

How Markets Responded

Despite the optimism from CZ and VanEck, some analysts have urged caution. Finance expert Rajat Soni warned that investors should not expect an imminent super cycle and that returns could remain unimpressive through 2025. Crypto analyst Willy Woo, however, predicted a short-term rally to $100,000.

Bitcoin spot and ether ETFs have recorded mixed performance. While ETFs initially saw inflows at the start of 2026, they have since turned negative, shedding over $1 billion in combined outflows. This suggests that early-year optimism may have been short-lived.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring several key indicators. The Capriole Investments data shows that sustained institutional buying has historically led to nearly 109% price gains since 2020. This suggests that if the current trend continues, Bitcoin could see significant upside.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024 has already signaled growing institutional interest. South Korea is also planning to launch Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026 as part of its economic growth strategy. This could bring new capital into the market and increase global adoption.

Network economist Timothy Peterson noted that Bitcoin has historically bounced back above $100,000 after periods of decline. He pointed out that three consecutive months of losses, which happened in Q4 2025, are rare and often followed by a rebound.

The market will also watch how regulatory changes in major economies affect Bitcoin. South Korea's move to regulate stablecoins and approve Bitcoin ETFs is one example of how government policies can shape the market's trajectory.

CZ and VanEck's optimistic forecasts are based on current trends, but analysts are cautious about overestimating the speed or scale of the potential super cycle. Institutional demand and regulatory developments will remain key factors in determining Bitcoin's future performance.