Bitcoin's Sudden Drop: What Triggers and What's Next?

In late November 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $100,000 amid a confluence of macroeconomic shifts, regulatory uncertainty, and exchange-driven dynamics. This article dissects the underlying triggers-ranging from institutional outflows to technical bearishness-and evaluates whether the selloff signals a strategic buying opportunity or a deeper market correction.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Enforcement Shifts

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under Chair Paul Atkins saw a 30% reduction in enforcement actions against crypto firms in fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024, with the agency's 2026 examination priorities omitting digital assets entirely. While this regulatory retreat initially fueled optimism, the government shutdown in late 2025 temporarily crippled enforcement capabilities, creating ambiguity for market participants. Meanwhile, a proposed market structure bill threatened to shift oversight of crypto derivatives to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), further muddying the regulatory landscape. These developments, though not directly cited as triggers for the November drop, underscored a lack of clarity that may have spooked risk-on investors.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Inflation, Tariffs, and Treasury Dynamics

The U.S. government's reopening in November 2025 reignited the release of critical macroeconomic data, including October's CPI, PPI, and trade figures. A $125 billion Treasury bond issuance aimed to stabilize term premiums but intensified volatility as markets recalibrated to inflation expectations. Concurrently, Trump-era tariffs-echoing protectionist policies from the early 2000s-narrowed the U.S. trade deficit by 23.8% in August 2025, yet disrupted global supply chains and GDP growth. Analysts argue that these tariffs exacerbated macroeconomic uncertainty, prompting investors to rotate out of risk assets like Bitcoin.

Exchange-Driven Pressures: ETF Outflows and Institutional Dynamics

The BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded its largest daily outflows since its January 2024 launch, with its share price plummeting 23% from Q3 highs. This mirrored Bitcoin's broader decline, as institutional demand waned amid bearish sentiment. Conversely, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council tripled its stake in the BlackRock ETF during Q3, signaling continued long-term confidence. Meanwhile, Metaplanet raised $150 million through a BTC-linked perpetual preferred equity offering, pricing shares at 900 yen each to institutional investors. Such capital-raising efforts highlight Bitcoin's role in innovative financing structures but also reflect a defensive stance in a tightening market.

Technical Indicators: Oversold Conditions and Bearish Momentum

As of November 17, 2025, Bitcoin tested critical support at $93,006, trading at $95,378.44 with a 0.2% 24-hour decline. Technical indicators painted a grim picture: the RSI fell to 33.79 (oversold territory), the MACD remained deeply negative at -4,003, and the asset traded below all major moving averages (7-day SMA at $97,747, 20-day SMA at $103,126). A break below $93,006 could target the $90,000 psychological level, while a rebound above $97,748 might signal a short-term bounce. Institutional traders, however, appear to be adopting a defensive posture.

Expert Commentary: Diverging Views on the Path Forward

Market participants remain divided. On one hand, Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, maintained a bullish stance, projecting a year-end price of $150,000 and citing a 25% year-to-date yield on its Bitcoin holdings. On the other, prediction markets and on-chain data suggested "late-stage capitulation", with downside odds resetting rapidly. Analysts caution that Bitcoin's integration into macroeconomic fundamentals-such as real interest rate sensitivity-means its recovery hinges on CPI moderation and stable ETF inflows.

Is This a Buying Opportunity or a Warning Sign?

The November 2025 selloff presents a nuanced case. While technical indicators suggest oversold conditions and potential rebounds, macroeconomic headwinds-including Trump-era tariffs and Treasury volatility-pose ongoing risks. Institutional actions, such as ADIC's ETF accumulation and Metaplanet's capital innovations, hint at underlying demand. However, the absence of a clear regulatory framework and persistent bearish momentum caution against premature optimism. For risk-tolerant investors, the $93,006 support level could offer a strategic entry point, provided macroeconomic data stabilizes. For others, the drop may signal a deeper correction requiring patience.