Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass $112,000 Amid Volatility and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bitcoin is currently in a state of uncertainty, struggling to surpass its all-time high of $112,000. After a week of volatility, Bitcoin failed to close above the key resistance level on Friday, casting doubt on the immediate bullish continuation. However, analysts remain cautiously optimistic as the price action still holds above major support levels. A strong weekly close could shift sentiment decisively.

Top analyst Daan highlighted that since the market’s recovery two weeks ago, there has been a consistent Coinbase premium—a bullish signal often linked to spot buying pressure from US-based investors. This premium had previously traded down amid heightened uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions but has since rebounded, reflecting improved market confidence. This premium is supported by strong ETF inflows, a sign of institutional confidence.

Traders are closely watching the weekend price action to determine whether Bitcoin can reclaim $112,000 and enter price discovery, or if another rejection will send it into a deeper consolidation phase. With key macro narratives easing and on-chain signals improving, the weekend could provide a critical clue about Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory—and whether altcoins can follow with renewed strength.

Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive move, one that could trigger renewed bullish momentum across the crypto market, particularly for altcoins. For the past several days, BTC has been consolidating in a well-defined range between $103,000 and $110,000. A clear breakout above this resistance or breakdown below support is expected to spark a swift move, as traders await confirmation of the next directional trend.

The broader macroeconomic environment has become more favorable. With uncertainty from global geopolitical tensions subsiding and fiscal policies gaining clarity, the stage appears set for Bitcoin to enter a bullish phase over the coming months. However, risks still linger. Treasury Yields are rising again, and inflation has not stabilized, factors that could inject volatility and hesitation into risk markets.

Daan pointed out a consistent Coinbase premium since the recovery began two weeks ago—a bullish indicator suggesting persistent spot demand, particularly from US-based buyers. This premium had weakened during the wave of concerns, but it has since rebounded and held steady. Still, caution is warranted. If Bitcoin stalls while ETF inflows remain high, that could mark a local top, as seen in previous cycles. For now, as long as price continues to follow the strength of inflows and maintains support above $103K, the bulls remain in control. A break above $110K could open the gates to new all-time highs, while a loss of support could lead to a sharp correction and delay broader recovery across the crypto landscape.

Bitcoin continues to trade within a key range between $103,600 and $109,300, consolidating just below its all-time high near $112,000. As shown on the daily chart, BTC has held above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently sits at $106,469, acting as dynamic support during recent pullbacks. This indicates ongoing strength in the trend, despite short-term volatility. The chart also reveals that price has tested the $109,300 resistance level multiple times since March, but without a decisive breakout. Volume during these retests has been relatively muted, suggesting that bulls may be waiting for stronger confirmation before committing to a sustained breakout move. On the downside, $103,600 remains a crucial support level, historically providing a springboard for rebounds throughout the last two months.

The 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $98,544 and $96,364, respectively, are still trending upward, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. If Bitcoin can decisively close above $109,300 on strong volume, price discovery could quickly follow, with $120,000 and beyond as potential targets. However, failure to hold current levels may open the door for a retest of $100K or lower, making this range-bound phase critical for the market’s next direction.