Bitcoin Struggles Below $90,000 Amid Global Trade Tensions

Bitcoin is currently trading in a critical range, fluctuating between $83,000 and $86,000, with neither bulls nor bears able to gain full control. This indecision reflects the broader uncertainty in global financial markets, exacerbated by macroeconomic tensions such as the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China. The lack of a clear catalyst has left Bitcoin directionless, unable to reclaim the $90,000 level that many view as essential for a confirmed uptrend. However, strong support around $81,000 has held so far, indicating that long-term holders still provide a strong base of conviction.

According to Glassnode, the unrealized losses of short-term Bitcoin holders, when normalized by percentage drawdown, reveal significant losses. These levels are reminiscent of early bear market conditions in previous cycles, suggesting a fragile market structure. Further downside pressure could trigger broader capitulation, or conversely, a sharp rebound if sentiment shifts. For now, Bitcoin’s price remains compressed, and traders are closely watching for the breakout that will define the next major move.

Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase after enduring weeks of prolonged selling pressure and heightened volatility. The broader macroeconomic landscape remains hostile, with global tensions deepening as the trade war between the US and China continues to influence risk appetite, dragging on traditional markets and crypto alike. A 90-day tariff pause was announced last week for all countries except China, but the move has done little to calm investor fears.

On-chain data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s unrealized losses, when normalized by percentage drawdown, show that short-term holders are already experiencing substantial losses. These levels are consistent with the early stages of previous bear markets, suggesting that downside risk remains elevated. While this does not confirm the start of a full-blown bear market, it highlights the vulnerability in the current structure. Until a major breakout or breakdown occurs, Bitcoin remains in limbo.

Bitcoin is currently trading below key moving averages, unable to reclaim momentum despite bouncing from short-term support levels. This signals a market still dominated by uncertainty and lacking a decisive catalyst. The $90K level remains a critical threshold that bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment, while the $81K region is acting as a crucial floor for now.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,900 after spending several days ranging just below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $85,000. Despite holding above the $83,000 support zone, bulls have failed to reclaim key moving averages that would signal renewed momentum. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $88,000, remains the primary resistance level that must be cleared for a true recovery rally to begin.

The price action suggests indecision as buyers hesitate to commit amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and global tensions. BTC’s inability to close convincingly above the EMA keeps the market in a state of cautious optimism. Bulls need to reclaim both the 200-day EMA and the 200-day SMA to confirm a bullish trend shift and attempt a retest of the $90,000 mark. However, failure to hold above the $83,000 level could trigger a new wave of selling. If bears regain control and push BTC below this zone, a move toward $80,000—or potentially lower—becomes increasingly likely. For now, the market remains in a tight consolidation range, and traders are watching closely for a breakout in either direction. A decisive move will likely shape Bitcoin’s next major trend.