Bitcoin's Struggle to Break $90K Amid $28B Options Expiry and Thinning Liquidity

The Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture as it approaches the largest options expiry in history. With approximately $23.6 billion in notional value set to settle on December 26, 2025, the cryptocurrency faces a unique confluence of market structure forces and liquidity constraints that are suppressing its ability to break above $90,000. This expiry, concentrated around key strike prices of $100,000 (calls) and $85,000 (puts), is creating a gravitational pull on price action, amplified by thinning liquidity and heightened volatility risks according to Bloomberg.

Market Structure: Gamma Concentration and Delta Hedging

The expiry's gravitational effects stem from the concentration of open interest and gamma sensitivity between $86,000 and $110,000, with the flattest plateau near $90,000–$100,000 according to MEXC analysis. Gamma, a measure of how delta (the hedge ratio) changes with price, is particularly high in this range, forcing market makers to dynamically adjust their hedges as Bitcoin fluctuates. This activity creates a self-reinforcing cycle: as prices approach $90,000, market makers buy dips and sell rallies to maintain neutrality, effectively capping upward movement while providing temporary support below $90,000 according to Vocus.

The put-call ratio of 0.38 underscores a bullish bias, with call options dominating near the $100,000 strike. However, this imbalance also means that any downward pressure could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations near $85,000, where put options are heavily concentrated according to CryptoSlate. The "max pain" theory further complicates the scenario, suggesting that Bitcoin may gravitate toward $96,000 to minimize losses for option sellers, creating a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces according to CME Group.

Thinning Liquidity and the $90K Bottleneck

Bitcoin's inability to break above $90,000 is exacerbated by thinning liquidity at this critical level. Order book depth data reveals a sharp decline in buy-side volume above $90,000, with underwater supply-positions that would result in losses if liquidated-exerting additional selling pressure according to 99Bitcoins. This liquidity crunch is compounded by the holiday-shortened expiry week, which typically reduces market participation and amplifies volatility according to CoinGlass.

The current price of $89,000 reflects a fragile equilibrium, with institutional hedging desks, ETFs, and family offices actively managing risk to avoid balance-sheet shocks according to Yellow. Market makers, meanwhile, are navigating a narrow corridor between $85,000 and $100,000, where their hedging activities are both stabilizing and constraining price movement. This dynamic is further complicated by the overlap with the historically strong "Santa Claus Rally," a seasonal trend that could either amplify post-expiry gains or trigger a sharp correction if the expiry resolves unfavorably according to Yahoo Finance.

Short-Term Volatility Risks

The expiry's gravitational pull and thin liquidity create a high-risk environment for short-term volatility. Historical data shows that large quarterly expiries often result in average price swings of 2.8%, with sharp moves triggered by forced liquidations or gamma squeezes according to Bloomberg. With over 300,000 contracts set to expire, the potential for explosive price action is significant, particularly if Bitcoin fails to clear $90,000 and triggers a cascade of put options at $85,000 according to Coinpedia.

Investors must also consider the interplay between derivatives flows and broader macroeconomic conditions. While a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and improved inflation data provide a bullish backdrop, these factors are being offset by the mechanical forces of the expiry. The result is a market caught between fundamental optimism and structural constraints, where even minor imbalances could lead to outsized volatility according to CoinDesk.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's struggle to break $90,000 is a textbook example of how derivatives markets can dominate price action in the short term. The $23.6 billion expiry is not merely a liquidity event but a structural force that is reshaping Bitcoin's price dynamics through gamma concentration, delta hedging, and liquidity thinning. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: while the long-term fundamentals remain intact, the immediate outlook is fraught with volatility risks. Positioning around $90,000 requires caution, as the expiry's gravitational pull and thin liquidity could lead to sharp, unpredictable moves-regardless of macroeconomic news.