Bitcoin May See Strongest Half-Year Performance in Late 2025, Says Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience its strongest half-year performance in late 2025. This prediction is based on several factors, including record ETF inflows, policy risks to the Federal Reserve, and increasing sovereign adoption.

In a research note released in July, Kendrick forecasted that ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases would surpass the second-quarter levels of 245,000 BTC in both the third and fourth quarters. The lender maintained its earlier prediction of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by year-end and updated its third-quarter outlook for Bitcoin with a $135,000 price projection. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin ETF flows have already exceeded expectations, with the market beginning to recognize that the crypto’s post-halving price patterns remain intact despite earlier doubts.

Kendrick also highlighted that markets are facing rising risks to Federal Reserve independence as President Donald Trump could potentially replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, bringing a shift toward looser monetary policy. He emphasized that ETF inflows and corporate treasury flows are all linked to US policy. Further boosting Bitcoin’s outlook is the passage of the GENIUS Act, which recently secured Senate approval. This legislation is expected to enhance regulatory clarity, facilitate broader adoption, and integrate crypto further into the traditional financial system.

Kendrick also predicted broadening sovereign adoption of Bitcoin and said that any evidence of national-level buying would support long-term demand and price stability, similar to the impact seen from corporate treasury accumulation in recent months. The note also addressed market worries about Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a scheduled event every four years that cuts mining rewards in half and historically influences price patterns. Kendrick explained that in previous cycles, Bitcoin prices have fallen about 18 months after a halving, which would imply potential declines around September or October of this year based on the April 2024 halving.

However, Standard Chartered believes that the dynamic has changed. Kendrick wrote that thanks to strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying, factors that were absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin may avoid the typical post-halving decline. He said price is likely to be volatile in late September and early October as markets focus on this historical pattern, but forecasted that the uptrend will resume at year-end, driven by these new structural demand factors. Kendrick concluded that the coming months will demonstrate how Bitcoin has moved beyond its previous halving cycle behavior, summarizing his outlook simply: “Buckle up.”