Bitcoin's Strong September Sets Stage for Historically Bullish October

Bitcoin closed September with a 5.16% gain, its third-best September on record. Historically, October has been the asset's strongest month, with an average gain of 14.4% and a median return of 10.8% since 2013. October has been positive in 10 out of 13 years, making it the most statistically favorable month for bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5.16% gain, its third-best September on record, setting the stage for a potentially strong October. Historically, October has been the asset's strongest month, with an average gain of 14.4% and a median return of 10.8% since 2013. October has been positive in 10 out of 13 years, making it the most statistically favorable month for Bitcoin Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000^[1].

On Thursday, Bitcoin broke above $120,000, driven by a significant bullish call from JPMorgan Chase (NASDAQ:JPM). The investment bank raised its year-end price target to $165,000, citing Bitcoin's undervaluation compared to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. The BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has slipped below 2.0, suggesting Bitcoin would need to rise about 42% to reach parity with private gold investment levels Machine learning algorithm predicts Bitcoin price for October 31, 2025^[2].

This shift in valuation comes as Bitcoin ETFs attracted $675.8 million inflows on Oct. 1, led by BlackRock's (NASDAQ:IBIT) and Fidelity's (NYSE:FBTC) contributions. Open interest surged to $80.4 billion, signaling stronger institutional hedging. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown could delay new ETF approvals, potentially impacting the launch of new spot crypto ETFs Bitcoin Hits $120,000 As JPMorgan Lifts Year-End Target To $165,000^[1].

Looking ahead, AI predictions for Bitcoin's price by October 2025 are optimistic. Finbold's AI Signals machine learning tool projects a price of $127,734 by the end of October 2025, a 6.78% upside from current levels. The most bullish LLM, Claude Sonnet 4, suggests a potential target of $135,000 (+12.85%), while GPT-4o and Grok 3 project prices of $123,200 (2.99%) and $125,001 (4.49%), respectively .

Technical indicators also support a bullish outlook. Bitcoin's monthly Bollinger Band Width (BBW), a key volatility measure, has compressed to historic lows, flashing a setup that previously preceded explosive rallies of up to 200% .