Bitcoin Stays Above $95,000, But the Real Test Begins Now

Bitcoin remains above $95,000 despite mixed signals from the market. Recent price action shows consolidation near key resistance levels, with ETF inflows providing a floor for the price. Analysts are watching whether this support holds as the market prepares for a larger move.

The bear flag formation on Bitcoin's chart suggests sellers are in control, with price failing to reclaim the $94,500 resistance zone. This structure is often a precursor to a continuation of the bearish trend. Technical indicators like the RSI and EMA also suggest downward pressure is growing.

Bitcoin ETFs continue to draw interest, with total net assets now above $120 billion. However, recent outflows suggest institutional caution, especially as older investors treat Bitcoin as a strategic allocation.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's current price action is shaped by a mix of ETF flows and on-chain activity. Recent inflows into ETFs have been substantial, yet large holders are reducing their balances. This suggests that major investors remain cautious about further price corrections.

The bear flag pattern, which forms after strong sell-offs, is in play. Price is consolidating beneath the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a key technical barrier. If buyers fail to reclaim this resistance, the path to $80,000 becomes more likely.

How Did Markets React?

The market has shown mixed signals in recent days. While Bitcoin remains above $90,000, the 50-week moving average has been a key threshold for several weeks. A sustained move above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum. However, weekly and monthly oscillators show bearish divergence, suggesting the advance may be losing steam.

Ethereum and XRP also show signs of consolidation. Ethereum trades above $3,300, supported by the 100-day EMA, while XRP remains below key moving averages but holds above the 50-day EMA. Both altcoins face similar dynamics to Bitcoin, with technical indicators suggesting further sideways movement is possible.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring key resistance levels for Bitcoin. The $94,500 range continues to act as a ceiling, with a break above this level potentially opening the door to $100,000. If this fails, the next support zone is around $90,500, with further downside risk to $89,239 and beyond.

ETF outflows and whale behavior are also critical for the near-term outlook. Large Bitcoin holders have reduced their balances, with some whale deposits increasing on exchanges. This activity often precedes selling waves. A sustained period of outflows could signal renewed bearish sentiment.

The RSI and MACD indicators will also be closely watched. A move below the midline of the RSI could signal a reversal in momentum, while a decline in the MACD histogram would suggest weakening bullish sentiment. These tools are widely used by traders to gauge the strength of current trends.

Bitcoin's potential to move toward $100,000 within ten days is still a possibility, particularly if momentum improves and the 21-day moving average holds. However, a drop into the $70,000 zone is still seen as a credible outcome by some analysts, especially with bearish divergence appearing on weekly and monthly charts.

Market observers also highlight the role of macroeconomic factors. If the dollar weakens and fiscal stimulus increases, this could provide further tailwinds for Bitcoin. Analysts have raised end-2026 price targets based on potential developments in quantum security and regulated capital markets.