Bitcoin's Stalled Bull Run: Is Shrinking Liquidity the Real Roadblock?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a picture of a market in limbo. After a brief surge above $126K in October, the asset has consolidated in a narrow $81K–$89K range, with on-chain metrics flashing red flags about liquidity fragility. While price charts may suggest a technical pause, the deeper issue lies in the structural underpinnings of the market: shrinking stablecoin inflows, a declining realized cap, and thinning order books. These factors, as highlighted by platforms like CryptoQuant and Glassnode, point to a market increasingly vulnerable to breakdowns-or, conversely, a potential breakout if liquidity returns.

The Bearish On-Chain Signals: A Fragile Foundation

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in late 2025 tell a story of a market losing its legs. The Bull Score, MVRV ratio, miner flows, and stablecoin liquidity have all turned bearish, with the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) dropping below 1.0-a critical threshold indicating short-term holders are selling at a loss. This pattern mirrors early 2022, a period marked by sharp corrections and capitulation. Long-term holders (LTHs) have also been distributing their supply since mid-2025, a trend accelerated by the November price drop.

Glassnode's analysis underscores the fragility: over 25% of Bitcoin's supply is now trading below cost basis, with the True Market Mean (the cost basis of all non-dormant coins) acting as a critical support level. While price stabilized above this threshold in late November, capital inflow has weakened, with ETF net flows turning negative and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) rolling over. Futures open interest has declined steadily, signaling a risk-off stance among traders, while perpetual funding rates have reset into neutral territory as reported by Glassnode.

Stablecoin Liquidity: The Vanishing Fuel

Stablecoin inflows, a key driver of Bitcoin's liquidity, have contracted sharply. Data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode reveals that stablecoin supply and exchange balances have historically aligned with Bitcoin price movements, with periods of strong ETF inflows and stablecoin growth fueling rallies. Conversely, when both ETF flows and stablecoin growth turn negative, downside moves tend to be faster and deeper according to market analysis.

Recent months have seen mixed signals. While stablecoin supply on exchanges grew by $45.3 billion in Q3 2025, reaching $289 billion, the broader market has experienced a drying up of "dry powder"-liquidity that could absorb sell orders or fund new buying waves as observed in recent data. For instance, USDE, a major stablecoin, saw a 47% drop in supply since October, reflecting active capital withdrawal from the system. This contraction exacerbates Bitcoin's downward pressure, as fewer assets are available to cushion sell-offs.

Order Book Thinning and Institutional Shifts

Order book depth, a critical indicator of market resilience, has also deteriorated. Despite a recent rebound in 2% order book depth to over $500 million (returning to pre-FTX levels), liquidity remains thin relative to the scale of capital chasing Bitcoin. U.S. venues now account for nearly half of global BTC liquidity, up from 14% the previous year, but even modest orders can significantly move the price.

Institutional investors, once a pillar of Bitcoin's bull run, have also shifted their stance. Over 75% of BTC trading now occurs through off-chain venues, like ETFs and centralized exchanges, with ETF inflows turning negative in late 2025. A major bank recently cut its Bitcoin price targets for 2025–2026, citing weaker buying from digital-asset-treasury companies and mixed ETF flows. This reflects broader macroeconomic headwinds, including falling equity valuations of treasury firms and constrained capital-raising capabilities.

Retail and Long-Term Holder Behavior: A Mixed Picture

Retail investor participation has grown, with ETF-based exposure bridging the gap between traditional and crypto markets. However, performance gaps between entry points have widened. Investors who bought in early 2025 were roughly 7% underwater by late 2025, needing over 80% returns in one year to meet institutional hurdle rates. Conversely, those who invested in October 2024 had already achieved 100% returns, highlighting the volatility of timing in a liquidity-starved market.

Long-term holder behavior has also diverged from prior cycles. By November 2025, LTH supply had reached a cyclical low, signaling that most spot-driven selling had already occurred following a 36% peak-to-trough decline. This measured distribution suggests a structural shift in market behavior, with seasoned holders reducing holdings steadily rather than in a blow-off top scenario.

The Macroeconomic Crossroads: Liquidity as the Decider

The debate over Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on global macroeconomic liquidity. As Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant notes, "without macro liquidity, we enter a bear cycle," tying on-chain bearish signals to deteriorating global liquidity conditions. Sahm Capital's analysis reinforces this, highlighting the long-term decline in global net liquidity due to inflation, rate hikes, and quantitative tightening. Conversely, Bitwise argues that robust liquidity growth could still support a bull trend.

The coming months will test this hypothesis. If global liquidity contracts further, the bearish thesis gains strength. However, if liquidity stabilizes or rebounds-and ETF inflows resume-Bitcoin could still stage a bull market reset. The market is currently at an inflection point, with on-chain signals flashing yellow rather than red.

Conclusion: Watching the Liquidity Gauge

Bitcoin's next move depends not on price action alone but on the return of liquidity. The contraction in stablecoin inflows, declining realized cap, and thinning order books are warning signs of a fragile market. Investors must monitor stablecoin behavior, exchange flows, and investor cohort actions to anticipate a potential breakout or breakdown. As the year closes, the key question remains: will sidelined capital-such as the $7.5 trillion in U.S. money market funds-pivot into regulated Bitcoin vehicles, or will the bearish undercurrents prevail? The answer will shape the next chapter of Bitcoin's journey.