Bitcoin Stagnant at $100,000 as OGs Sell Holdings

Bitcoin's price has remained stagnant, hovering around $100,000, despite significant interest from institutional investors. According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, this stagnation is primarily due to long-term holders, often referred to as "OGs," who have been selling their Bitcoin holdings since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024. These OGs have been "dumping on Wall Street" and "unloading their positions," which has created a selling pressure that has counteracted the buying interest from institutions.

Edwards noted that the six-month holder cohort, which represents new wave of Bitcoin treasury companies, has been acquiring a significant amount of Bitcoin. According to him, the amount of Bitcoin acquired by this cohort in the last two months has completely consumed all of the Bitcoin unloaded by long-term holders over the last 1.5 years. This dynamic has created a situation where the market is in a state of equilibrium, with the selling pressure from OGs being matched by the buying interest from new institutional investors.

Edwards predicted that these Bitcoin treasury companies would create a "huge flywheel buying frenzy" and push the ETF narrative into the backseat. He observed that many copy-cats have entered the market, indicating a growing interest from corporate investors. Several new corporate investors emerged just last week, including real estate giant Cardone Capital, Anthony Pompliano’s venture firm ProCap, mineral exploration company Panther Metals, and Norwegian deep-sea mining firm Green Minerals. This trend suggests that more companies are looking to add Bitcoin to their treasury operations, which could provide additional support to the market in the long term.

In the short term, traders are taking profit ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, as many expect core issues to remain unresolved. They are hedging against a plunge in market prices in case trade talks go south. Meanwhile, investors and traders are waiting for US macroeconomic data reports and policy updates. Updates on trade deals ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline, along with the progress of Trump’s budget bill, are both key risks that need to clear before a continuation of the bullish trend resumes. Any surprises could trigger a sell-off, according to the analyst's forecast.

Bitcoin prices have been largely range-bound since they broke above six figures for the second time this year in early May. The asset has oscillated between $102,000 and $110,000 with a couple of brief spikes and dips outside of that range. Despite this market inactivity, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have seen more than $3.2 billion in inflows without an outflow day over the past fortnight. Meanwhile, the number of new Bitcoin treasury companies continues to increase weekly. This trend suggests that there is a growing interest from institutional investors, who see Bitcoin as a valuable addition to their portfolios.