Bitcoin's Stability Hinges on $110K as September Uncertainty Looms

Bitcoin’s price movement has drawn renewed attention following a period of consolidation after a strong uptrend that began in April. The cryptocurrency has stabilized above key support levels, which has been interpreted by some analysts as a sign of a robust market structure. Despite ongoing volatility and cautious investor sentiment, long-term holders and institutional interest continue to support price stability, reinforcing the broader bullish narrative.

According to recent on-chain and AI-driven analyses, Bitcoin is expected to remain within a neutral range in the near term. The Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model from CryptoQuant forecasts a modest decline in the short term, projecting a 1.1% drop to $109,451 over the next seven days and a 1.72% decrease to $108,771 over 30 days. While these figures suggest a period of consolidation, they also highlight increasing uncertainty in the model’s projections. By the end of the forecast window, confidence intervals have widened to over 50%, signaling potential for sharp volatility and multiple possible outcomes.

The main scenario, as indicated by a combination of WaveNet and TFT models, envisions Bitcoin trading within a $108,000–$120,000 range for the first three weeks of September. A surprise breakout could occur in the final week if a significant market catalyst or sentiment shift emerges, potentially leading to either a sharp retracement or a bullish breakout toward new highs. This volatility underscores the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels in the coming weeks.

Currently, Bitcoin trades at $112,146, showing a 1.77% rebound after recent fluctuations. The $110,000 level continues to hold as a critical support zone, with the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages at $107,765 and $100,647, respectively, offering additional medium-term support. A breakout above the $115,000 resistance could rekindle the upward trend, potentially pushing prices toward the all-time high range of $120,000–$123,000. Conversely, a sustained drop below $110,000 could trigger further downward pressure, with the next potential support levels at $107,000–$105,000.

While the market currently faces some selling pressure, the final week of September is seen as a pivotal period. The heightened volatility and uncertainty in the AI models suggest that any major developments—whether positive or negative—could significantly shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. Investors are advised to monitor key on-chain metrics and macroeconomic indicators as potential signals of the next major move.