Bitcoin Soars Past $115K—But Big Holders Are Watching Closely

Bitcoin climbed past $115,000 in recent trading, fueled by inflationary relief and robust inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The surge, however, has been accompanied by emerging bearish signals that traders and investors are monitoring closely. Analysts attribute part of the bullish momentum to macroeconomic developments suggesting that central banks may soon reduce the pace of rate hikes, easing pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to market data, Bitcoin’s price range between $107,822 and $113,952 has shown a 3.80% weekly increase, while its six-month performance has surged over 36%. The crypto market is now closely watching key resistance levels, notably the $117,000 mark. If Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, the next target could be near $122,889. These developments align with broader capital inflows into crypto-linked instruments, as ETFs have drawn over $2 billion in net inflows in a single day in early September.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has also shown a strong recovery, having rebounded 34% from its April 2025 low against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio, which measures Ethereum's value relative to Bitcoin, has stabilized near a critical resistance level of 0.055 BTC. Analysts suggest that Ethereum’s recent performance reflects its growing utility in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), as well as expanding institutional interest. For instance, in early September, institutional crypto funds injected $1.5 billion into the sector, with 60% of the inflows directed toward Ethereum-based products.

Despite the optimism, bearish indicators are emerging. On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin’s circulating supply is concentrated among a small number of large holders, with over 340,000 addresses holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC. This distribution pattern suggests a potential lack of retail participation and could signal a consolidation period ahead. Additionally, the Bitcoin Ahr999 Index—a tool used to identify relative market bottoms—remains above the 0.45 threshold, indicating that a strong support level has yet to be tested.

Technical analysts are also cautioning that while Ethereum’s short-term outlook appears favorable—evidenced by a rising four-hour RSI of 58—its longer-term trend remains uncertain. The asset is currently trading between $4,183 and $4,461, with a key resistance level at $4,616. A breakout past this could open the door to $4,894, a level that would mark a 10% increase from current levels. However, Ethereum’s long-term trajectory relative to Bitcoin remains a point of contention, as the ETH/BTC ratio has yet to recover to pre-2021 levels.

As the crypto market absorbs these developments, investors are advised to remain cautious. While Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to draw attention from both retail and institutional buyers, the recent volatility and bearish signals suggest that a period of consolidation may be on the horizon. Analysts recommend monitoring macroeconomic data, particularly central bank policy decisions, which could significantly influence market sentiment in the coming months.