Bitcoin Slides Under $109K as Fed Signals and ETF Exodus Weigh on Momentum

Bitcoin fell below $109,000 in early October 2025, marking its lowest level since early September, as macroeconomic data and shifting institutional demand weighed on the cryptocurrency market. The decline followed a sharp revision of U.S. second-quarter GDP growth to 3.8% annualized, exceeding expectations and dampening hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts . Initial jobless claims also dropped to 218,000, reinforcing perceptions of a resilient labor market and reducing the likelihood of accommodative monetary policy. Traders adjusted their bets, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 17% probability of no rate cuts in the next meeting, up from 8% a day earlier .

The bearish momentum was amplified by a slowdown in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs. Net inflows for the week ending September 24 totaled $931.4 million, a 54% drop from the prior week’s $2.03 billion . BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led a partial recovery on September 24 with $128.9 million in inflows, but cumulative weekly outflows highlighted fragility in institutional demand . Glassnode analysts noted that ETF inflows had weakened since mid-August, with on-chain liquidity and derivatives markets now playing a more pivotal role in stabilizing prices .

Technical indicators underscored the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s current price structure. The cryptocurrency broke below key support levels at $112,000 and $110,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 36 and the 100-day moving average acting as a critical floor . Analysts identified $107,500 as a crucial psychological barrier, with further downside risks to $103,500 if short-term holders lost confidence . On-chain data from Coinglass revealed $92.7 million in net outflows from spot exchanges and a declining Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), signaling waning profitability and increased selling pressure .

Market sentiment remained mixed. While whale accumulation hit record highs, with large addresses holding over 100 BTC surging to 19,130, ETF outflows and retail sell-offs created divergence in investor behavior . Ethereum, Bitcoin’s primary competitor, saw continued outflows, with $79.4 million in redemptions on September 24, extending a three-day streak of net exits . The ETH/BTC ratio, which had surged to 20% in late August, returned to flat year-to-date, reflecting a shift in market dynamics .

Despite short-term volatility, long-term optimism persisted. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicted Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, citing progress in U.S. legislation and institutional adoption . Analysts also pointed to historical patterns, noting that Bitcoin had averaged -3.77% returns in September over the past 12 years. However, some argued that 2025 could deviate from this trend, drawing parallels to the 2017 cycle where September rallies preceded all-time highs .

The path forward hinges on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $114,000, a level analysts view as critical for restoring bullish momentum . Failure to hold above $108,000 could trigger a deeper correction toward $93,000, according to Glassnode. Meanwhile, derivatives markets absorbed recent sell pressure, with futures open interest declining and the taker buy/sell ratio at -0.79, reflecting stronger short-term bearish sentiment .

[1] Bitcoin (BTC) Price News: Below $111K After GDP Revision (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/25/bitcoin-falls-below-usd111k-crypto-stocks-plunge-as-gdp-revision-dampens-rate-cut-odds)

[2] Will Bitcoin Crash or Rise in September 2025? - Analytics Insight (https://www.analyticsinsight.net/cryptocurrency-analytics-insight/will-bitcoin-price-further-drop-in-september-2025)

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[6] Bitcoin Gets $90K Calls Amid a ‘Slowdown’ in ETF Inflows (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-enter-slowdown-phase-bears-90k-btc-price)

[7] Bitcoin ETFs Attract $241M Inflows as BTC-USD Tests $109K (https://www.tradingnews.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-secure-241m-usd-inflows-whilte-btc-usd-tests-109k-usd)

[9] Bitcoin ETFs Surge Back With Record $241M Inflows — ETH ETFs Still Bleeds (https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/33bf8-bitcoin-etfs-surge-back-with-record-241m-inflows-eth-etfs-still-bleeds)

[10] Bitcoin ‘Sits at a Crossroads’ As Spot ETF Inflows Drop While … (https://dailyhodl.com/2025/09/12/bitcoin-sits-at-a-crossroads-as-spot-etf-inflows-drop-while-futures-traders-absorb-sell-pressure-glassnode)

[13] Bitcoin Dips: Why $107.5K and $103.5K Could Be Critical Levels (https://www.analyticsinsight.net/bitcoin/bitcoin-dips-why-1075k-and-1035k-could-be-critical-levels)