Bitcoin’s Slide: September Weakness vs. Q4 Optimism

Bitcoin's price continued its downward trajectory in late September 2025, slipping below $110,000 and triggering widespread market concern. The cryptocurrency, which had reached an intrayear high of $123,026 in AugustBTC to USD Exchange Rate History for 2025^[1], faced renewed selling pressure as technical indicators and macroeconomic factors aligned to amplify bearish sentiment. Over the past week, BTC/USD fell nearly 5%, with the 24-hour low touching $109,500Bitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K; Bitfinex …^[2]. This decline erased nearly half of the gains from its recent rebound, as traders grappled with the broader market's fragility.

Market participants observed a surge in leveraged liquidations, with over $1.7 billion in positions wiped out in a single 24-hour period. Long positions bore the brunt of the selloff, accounting for $1.62 billion in losses, while shorts lost $85.8 million. The collapse in leveraged trading activity highlighted the fragility of market positioning, particularly among retail investors who had aggressively bought into BTC's rally earlier in the year. Analysts attributed the liquidations to a combination of technical breakdowns and shifting macroeconomic expectations.

Technical analysis from Bitfinex and LMAX Group suggested a potential support range between $93,000 and $95,000 if the current correction deepensBitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K; Bitfinex …^[2]. The short-term holder realized price (SHRP) indicator, which gauges the cost basis of newer investors, currently sits near $108,900, just below the current price. A failure to hold this level could trigger a deeper retracement, with historical bull-market corrections averaging 17% peak-to-troughBitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K; Bitfinex …^[2]. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirmed bearish momentum, with the RSI reading at 38 and MACD signaling a bearish crossover.

Macro factors further exacerbated the sell-off. The U.S. government's revision of second-quarter GDP to 3.8% annualized, coupled with unexpectedly low jobless claims, reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cutsBitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls sharply as massive …^[5]. Traders now assign a 17% probability to the Fed maintaining rates in September, up from 8% a day earlierBitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls sharply as massive …^[5]. This shift in policy expectations bolstered the U.S. Dollar and weighed on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Gold, a traditional safe haven, surged to record highs above $3,500, siphoning capital from riskier assetsBitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K; Bitfinex …^[2].

Historical patterns also cast a shadow over BTC's near-term outlook. September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.39% according to Coinglass. While BTC has gained 1.17% so far this month, traders remain wary of a potential reversal. Institutional demand for Bitcoin also showed signs of waning, with U.S. spot ETFs recording a $484 million outflow in the week ending September 26. This marks the first significant outflow since late August and could signal a shift in investor sentiment.

Despite the bearish environment, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Joel Kruger of LMAX Group noted that September often serves as a consolidation phase ahead of stronger fourth-quarter performanceBitcoin Price News: BTC Slips Below $110K; Bitfinex …^[2]. He highlighted the potential for ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations, and regulatory tailwinds to support a late-year rally. However, this optimism is tempered by the immediate risks of a deeper correction, particularly if the Fed adopts a more cautious stance at its upcoming policy meeting.

The broader cryptocurrency market mirrored BTC's decline, with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) falling more than 4% in the past 24 hoursBitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls sharply as massive …^[5]. The total crypto market cap dipped to $3.74 trillion, wiping out over $170 billion in a single dayBTC could dip to $107k amid bearish PA: Check forecast^[3]. Altcoin weakness was exacerbated by the ETH/BTC ratio returning to flat year-to-date, reversing months of outperformanceBitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls sharply as massive …^[5]. Stablecoins also faced pressure, with Circle's CRCL dropping 4.4% as investors sought safer assetsBitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC falls sharply as massive …^[5].

As the market digests these developments, attention turns to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy response. Traders are bracing for further volatility, with the possibility of BTC testing support levels as low as $107,000BTC could dip to $107k amid bearish PA: Check forecast^[3]. The interplay of technical, macroeconomic, and institutional factors will likely dictate the next phase of Bitcoin's price action, with both near-term risks and long-term accumulation opportunities in focus.