Bitcoin Shows 1.27% Resilience Amid Iran-Israel Conflict

On June 21, 2025, the US launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, causing a brief dip in Bitcoin's price. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, closing just under 1.27% below its pre-attack price. Over the course of 10 days in June, despite the escalating conflict and missile strikes, Bitcoin maintained its stability, showing resilience amidst global chaos.

While it is natural to seek patterns and correlations, it is important to remember that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. The recent conflict in the Middle East did cause some fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, but the drawdown was orderly and there was no panic or wipeout. By the end of the week, Bitcoin had closed above six figures at $100,760, indicating that the most severe military escalation in the region in years moved the asset just 1.27% in 24 hours. This suggests that Bitcoin is not immune to war, but it is more stable than one might expect.

Bitcoin's price action has been affected by the recent conflict, but it often finds stability rather quickly. The 200-day moving average for BTC is around $95,567, which is a key long-term trend indicator that often provides market support and resistance levels for assets if the price dips drastically in the short term. While Bitcoin does show movement in response to news about political conflicts, other headlines may have more of an effect on BTC’s price volatility in the longer term.

Looking back to the start of 2025, macro-news headlines from the United States seem to show more of a correlation with Bitcoin's price movements than the recent Iran-Israel conflict. For example, the swearing in of US President Donald Trump on Jan. 20 caused a decline in Bitcoin's price in the days that followed. Other macroeconomic data, such as changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve's rate pause, also had a significant impact on Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin has historically trended positively during periods of geopolitical turmoil. During major events like the US–Iran tensions in 2020, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and now the Iran–Israel conflict of 2025, Bitcoin has shown upward movement or remarkable price stability. While it does not act like a traditional safe haven, it often behaves like an uncorrelated hedge in systemic uncertainty. BlackRock’s 2024 report reinforced this, showing that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold during several past geopolitical shocks.

When Bitcoin moved during the recent Iran-Israel conflict, it did not respond to ideology. It was reacting to liquidation and flow. Traders sold into uncertainty, while others bought the dip. ETF demand continued, and the structure held. The recent Iran-Israel conflict headlines tested Bitcoin’s resilience, and it passed the test without technical breakdown or institutional flight. This is not bullish in a hyped sense; it’s bullish in a structural sense. The asset did not flinch when the world briefly tilted toward catastrophe, but that tilt is far from over. Events can affect all asset classes and provide investors with potential positive entries. Gauging if the news effect will be short, medium or long-lived is a tricky question to answer.