Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Sell as Realized Price Hits $94.5K

Bitcoin's recent price surge has brought short-term holders (STHs) into the spotlight, but the trend is not one that bulls might find encouraging. As prices climb, STHs are beginning to sell their coins, a pattern that has historically preceded major market peaks. The Realized Price for STHs has reached $94.5K, diverging significantly from long-term holders (LTHs), who are also distributing their coins. This divergence suggests weakening demand and rising sell pressure, raising concerns about a potential market top and an upcoming correction, particularly post-October 2025.

In previous bull cycles, STH supply typically rose during price rallies, fueling momentum. However, recent data shows a stark deviation from this pattern. Despite Bitcoin trading near all-time highs, STH supply has remained muted, mirroring late-stage patterns from previous cycles where coins change hands at the peak. This lack of fresh accumulation indicates that current demand may be fragile and foreshadows a top-heavy market.

The STH Realized Price reaching $94.5K is historically a late-cycle marker. Many recent buyers are holding unrealized gains, signaling potential profit-taking. In contrast, the LTH Realized Price remains at $33K, forming a wide divergence. Such a gap has often preceded corrections, especially when the STH band flattens or crosses the spot price from above. The $94.5K STH Realized Price may serve as a final support before losses, a typical turning point in past cycles. However, the current setup suggests that the market is beyond the bullish crossover and into distribution territory.

There is a dominant wave of distribution from STHs, with red bars consistently outpacing green accumulation spikes since early 2025. Despite Bitcoin’s strong price action, the persistent Net Outflows suggest that recent buyers are increasingly offloading their positions into strength. This pattern often precedes market cooldowns, especially with the STH realized price above the spot. Without renewed accumulation, the market may struggle to maintain current levels, as STHs use rallies as exit liquidity.

While a post-October 2025 correction seems likely due to fading demand and halving cycles, some upside may remain. For now, STH distribution is back, and the market is showing signs of maturity in the current bull cycle. The divergence between STH and LTH realized prices, along with the muted STH supply, suggests that the market may be approaching a turning point. Investors should be cautious and prepared for potential corrections as the market navigates through this phase.