Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face 10% Losses as Market Mirrors 2024 Trends

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are currently experiencing significant losses, mirroring the market conditions observed in August 2024. The MVRV ratio, when analyzed alongside the STH Realized Price, offers valuable insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. Bitcoin’s price movements in March 2025 closely followed the patterns seen in August 2024, although they diverged from the more severe declines experienced in 2021.

Short-term holders accumulated Bitcoin at around 84,000 USD, despite the STH Realized Price being 92,780 USD. This discrepancy indicates that many investors entered the market late, purchasing at inflated levels above 90,000 USD. The analysis of BTC’s supply age bands and MVRV metrics provides a comprehensive view of the current market structure, helping traders navigate the delicate balance between bearish dominance and potential bullish reversals.

From mid-2024 to early 2025, the STH Realized Price climbed from 65,000 USD to 92,780 USD, reflecting late-cycle buying behavior at inflated prices. This trend suggests that traders who entered the market at 90,000 USD or higher are now experiencing unrealized losses. If Bitcoin reclaims 92,780 USD, it could regain bullish momentum, potentially testing the 100,000 USD mark. However, failure to hold above 80,000 USD might deepen selling pressure, leading to a retest of the 70,000 USD level. Traders must closely monitor these levels, as historical dips, such as the 75,000 USD drop in late 2024, often preceded strong rebounds.

BTC’s supply age bands, spanning from 2012 to 2025, provide further clarity on market trends. The 5-10 year cohort peaked at 8 million BTC in 2021, while the 1-3 month supply band reached 4 million BTC in 2024 during the rally to 100,000 USD. This distribution shift suggests that long-term holders retained a strong grip on supply, while newer coins aged as the market matured. By early 2025, the 6-12 month bands stabilized at 3 million BTC, indicating that a significant portion of Bitcoin had transitioned to long-term holders. This pattern closely resembled the 2017 cycle, where rapid accumulation eventually led to a sharp correction. If Bitcoin surpasses 100,000 USD, the younger supply bands could experience renewed activity, pushing fresh liquidity into the market. Conversely, prolonged price suppression below 80,000 USD could lead to further aging of supply, extending bearish conditions.

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, combined with the STH Realized Price, provides insight into market sentiment and potential reversals. From 2020 to 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV fluctuated between 0.5 and 2.5. The metric peaked at 2.2 in mid-2024 before declining to 1.5 by March 2025. Historically, MVRV values above 2.0 have signaled overvaluation, often preceding corrections, while values closer to 1.0 indicate accumulation opportunities. As Bitcoin’s STH Realized Price surged from 40,000 USD in 2021 to 92,780 USD in 2025, it reflected increasing market optimism. However, this growth paralleled past overvaluation cycles, such as in 2021 when MVRV exceeded 2.0 before a major correction. New traders, often influenced by media hype and influencer-driven speculation, bought Bitcoin at 95,000 USD, disregarding MVRV warnings at 1.5. If MVRV reclaims 2.5 alongside increased buying volume, Bitcoin could retest 120,000 USD. However, if it drops toward 1.0, it may signal a deeper decline, potentially revisiting the 70,000 USD range.