Bitcoin's Short-Term Bottom Formed: Strategic Entry Points Before the 2026 Halving

The Bitcoin market has entered a pivotal phase as it approaches the 2026 halving event. After a sharp correction in late 2025, technical and on-chain data suggest the formation of a short-term bottom, offering strategic entry points for investors. This analysis synthesizes key indicators to validate the turning point and outline actionable insights for positioning ahead of the next major supply shock.

Technical Confirmation: A Bearish Cycle with Accumulation Signals

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by bearish technical signals, including the death cross pattern-where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day EMA-triggering a bearish momentum shift. The cryptocurrency has tested critical support levels, with the $80,000–$82,000 range emerging as a focal point for accumulation. This zone aligns with historical capitulation levels, where retail and institutional traders often re-enter the market.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence has also flashed oversold conditions, reminiscent of major bottoms in 2018 and 2022. While volume profiles show signs of exhaustion, spot cumulative volume delta has turned positive, indicating potential short-term stabilization. A successful defense of the $80,000–$82,000 range could pave the way for a rebound toward $150,000, while a breakdown below this level risks further declines toward $74,000.

On-Chain Metrics: Undervaluation and Institutional Accumulation

On-chain data reinforces the case for a short-term bottom. The MVRV Z-score, a measure of Bitcoin's market value relative to its realized value, has dropped to 1.43 in late 2025-a level historically associated with cyclical bottoms according to on-chain analysis. This suggests that the market is undervalued, with long-term holders accumulating at discounted prices. Whale wallets (addresses holding ≥1,000 BTC) have increased from 1,350 in 2023 to over 1,450 by late 2025, signaling renewed institutional interest.

Miner selling pressure has also eased, with hashprice (revenue per PH/s of hashing power) stabilizing near $38.6 per PH/s-a critical break-even threshold for miners according to market data. While ETF outflows have pressured liquidity, institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to accumulate Bitcoin through over-the-counter (OTC) channels, maintaining support above $85,000. This divergence between retail redemptions and institutional buying underscores a structural shift in market dynamics.

Strategic Entry Points: Balancing Risk and Reward

For investors, the $80,000–$82,000 range represents a high-probability entry point. Historical patterns indicate that such zones often attract renewed buying interest, particularly if Bitcoin ETF inflows stabilize. A breakout above $95,000 could unlock upside targets at $100,000–$110,000, while a breakdown below $80,000 may test deeper support at $74,000.

The 2026 halving, scheduled to reduce Bitcoin's supply by 50%, adds a long-term bullish catalyst. If liquidity conditions improve and institutional demand stabilizes, the post-halving period could see Bitcoin targeting $200,000–$220,000 by late 2028. However, macroeconomic risks-such as Federal Reserve policy shifts and global bond market volatility-remain critical variables according to market analysis.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on the Halving Cycle

Bitcoin's short-term bottom formation is supported by a confluence of technical and on-chain signals. While the bearish cycle persists, the accumulation by long-term holders and institutional players suggests a repositioning phase rather than a structural collapse. For investors, the $80,000–$82,000 range offers a strategic entry point, balancing the risks of further downside with the potential for a multi-year bull run. As the 2026 halving approaches, the interplay between supply constraints and institutional adoption will likely define Bitcoin's trajectory.