Bitcoin's Shifting Long-Term Holder Dynamics: A Bullish Continuation or Bearish Exhaustion?

The Bitcoin market in late 2025 is at a critical inflection point, shaped by evolving on-chain behavior, institutional adoption, and regulatory clarity. A key question for investors is whether the reduced selling activity by long-term holders (LTHs)-often referred to as "OGs"-signals a bullish continuation of accumulation or a bearish exhaustion of distribution. By analyzing LTH SOPR trends, on-chain selling patterns, and the surge in ETF demand, this article evaluates the implications for market stability and strategic entry opportunities.

LTH SOPR Trends: Profitability and HODLing Mentality

The LTH SOPR metric, which measures the profitability of transactions from Bitcoin outputs held for at least 155 days, has shown a marked shift in 2025. According to on-chain analytics from Glassnode, long-term holders are increasingly selling at profits, with a significant portion of the cohort holding substantial unrealized gains. This trend reflects a HODLing mentality, where LTHs are prioritizing accumulation over distribution, even amid price volatility.

The rise in LTH SOPR aligns with broader market sentiment. As of late 2025, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio indicates that the majority of Bitcoin's supply is in profit, suggesting a structural shift toward long-term value retention. This dynamic contrasts with previous cycles, where LTH selling pressure often coincided with bear market corrections. The current environment, however, appears to be characterized by a more patient, accumulation-driven approach from OG holders.

On-Chain Selling Patterns: Easing Pressure and Absorption Dynamics

On-chain data reveals a significant easing of selling pressure from LTHs in 2025. Glassnode's Realized Profit (7D-SMA) metric fell to $183.8M per day in late 2025, a sharp decline from earlier peaks. This reduction suggests that the market is effectively absorbing supply from seasoned investors, potentially signaling a transition from a distribution phase to an absorption phase.

However, the recent price rally into the $96,000–$97,000 range has been driven more by derivatives mechanics than organic demand. Short liquidations and thin futures volume have amplified price movements, while futures turnover remains below 2025 levels. Long-term holders who accumulated during Q2 2025 still represent a potential source of sell-side pressure if prices break through key supply clusters. These holders are currently realizing approximately 12.8k BTC per week in net profit, a slowdown compared to prior distribution peaks.

The critical test for market stability lies in Bitcoin's ability to consolidate above the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of ~$98.3k. Historically, reclaiming and holding this threshold has marked the transition from corrective phases to sustained uptrends. For now, the market remains sensitive to liquidity shifts, with each rebound against the $93k–$110k supply zone encountering renewed sell-side pressure.

ETF Demand and Institutional Inflows: A New Era of Legitimacy

The surge in Bitcoin ETF demand in 2025 has been a game-changer for market stability. Institutional investment inflows reached $29.4 billion through August 2025, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) delivering a 28.1% return year-to-date. Regulatory breakthroughs, including the U.S. GENIUS Act and the SEC's approval of in-kind creations and redemptions, have streamlined ETF operations and attracted over $156 billion in assets across 76 spot and futures crypto ETPs.

These developments have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a legitimate investment class. The creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and executive orders promoting digital assets in retirement plans further underscore institutional confidence. By January 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $116.89M in inflows, driven by corporate treasuries purchasing Bitcoin in bulk transactions. For example, one firm added 13,600 BTC in a single transaction, pushing its holdings to 687,400 BTC.

The regulatory clarity provided by the repeal of SAB 121 and the expansion of digital asset infrastructure-such as BitGo's regulatory licenses in Germany and Dubai-have also facilitated institutional entry. With over $3 trillion in potential institutional capital poised to enter the market, Bitcoin's role as a strategic allocation for risk-adjusted returns and fiat devaluation hedging is becoming entrenched.

Strategic Entry Opportunities: Balancing Accumulation and Risk

The interplay between LTH behavior, ETF demand, and regulatory tailwinds creates a nuanced landscape for strategic entry. Reduced LTH selling pressure and rising SOPR suggest a bullish continuation of accumulation, particularly if prices consolidate above the STH cost basis. Meanwhile, ETF inflows and institutional adoption provide a structural floor for demand, mitigating the risk of bearish exhaustion.

However, investors must remain cautious. The recent rally's reliance on derivatives mechanics highlights the market's vulnerability to liquidity shifts. Additionally, long-term holders still hold significant supply above $93k, and a decisive break through this zone could reignite sell-side pressure. Strategic entry points should prioritize price consolidation above key thresholds, supported by sustained ETF inflows and a reduction in LTH distribution activity.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's 2025 market dynamics reflect a maturing ecosystem where long-term holders, institutional investors, and regulatory frameworks are converging to stabilize the asset. The reduced selling pressure from OGs, coupled with ETF-driven demand and regulatory clarity, points to a bullish continuation of accumulation. However, the market's sensitivity to liquidity and overhead supply clusters necessitates a measured approach. For investors, the key lies in aligning entry strategies with on-chain signals-such as SOPR trends and STH cost basis levels-while leveraging the growing institutional infrastructure to navigate volatility.