Is Bitcoin Set for a $100,000 Rally Amid Key Liquidity Zones and Whale Activity?

Bitcoin's price action in November 2025 has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts about its potential to reclaim the $100,000 psychological threshold. A confluence of technical indicators, macroeconomic dynamics, and on-chain whale activity suggests a complex interplay of forces shaping the asset's trajectory. This analysis evaluates the likelihood of a $100,000 rally by dissecting critical liquidity zones, institutional demand trends, and the behavioral patterns of large holders.

Technical Analysis: Liquidity Zones and Structural Indicators

Bitcoin's price has oscillated around key support and resistance levels in recent weeks, with the $75,000 and $82,045 zones acting as critical psychological and on-chain barriers. According to a report by , these levels represent the average cost basis of long-term holders, and historical data shows prices often react decisively near such zones. A breakdown below $75,000 could trigger a deeper retracement toward $30K–$35K, while a rebound above this level might signal renewed bullish momentum.

Resistance remains concentrated in the $100,000–$105,000 range, with the $105,050 level identified as a major short-term barrier. If Bitcoin retests this threshold, it could validate a continuation of bullish momentum, potentially pushing the price toward $107,000. Technical indicators like the SuperTrend have flipped bearish near $100,000, suggesting a risk of further drawdowns, though this is not deterministic.

Elliott Wave analysis adds nuance to the narrative. The asset may be completing Wave (4) near the $80K–$83K liquidity zone, with Wave (5) potentially extending to $100K–$124K according to analysis. A Head & Shoulders pattern, with a neckline near $75K, further underscores the importance of this level in confirming a bullish reversal.

Macroeconomic Headwinds and Institutional Resilience

The macroeconomic landscape remains a double-edged sword. The Federal Reserve's abrupt shift in December 2025 rate-cut expectations-from 97% to 22%-has dampened risk appetite, exacerbating Bitcoin's volatility. Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-China trade frictions and Middle East conflicts, have driven capital toward safe-haven assets, indirectly pressuring Bitcoin.

Despite these headwinds, institutional demand remains robust. Spot ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have posted $524 million in net inflows, reflecting sustained interest from major players. Regulatory clarity, including the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025, has further solidified institutional confidence, with entities like JPMorgan and MicroStrategy accumulating record BTC holdings.

Whale Activity: A Harbinger of Market Bottoming?

On-chain data reveals a striking shift in whale behavior. Large holders-entities with 1,000–10,000 BTC-have increased their holdings by 23% over the past year, while smaller holders (100–1,000 BTC) have absorbed supply from mid-tier sellers. This "wealth transfer" pattern, historically observed before market bottoms, suggests whales are positioning for a potential rebound.

The Accumulation Trend Score by Glassnode indicates that whales holding over 10,000 BTC are no longer net sellers, with their score hovering around 0.5. Over the past 30 days, long-term holder addresses doubled to 262,000, and whales collectively bought over 375,000 BTC during dips. Such accumulation, coupled with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching oversold levels, signals a possible reversal.

Balancing the Odds: A Probabilistic Outlook

While technical and on-chain indicators lean toward a bullish case for $100,000, macroeconomic risks persist. A breakdown below $75,000 could trigger a cascade of liquidations, pushing Bitcoin toward $30K–$35K. Conversely, a successful retest of $105,050 and sustained institutional inflows might catalyze a rally toward $124K, as suggested by Elliott Wave projections.

Whale activity, however, offers a counterbalance to bearish scenarios. The accumulation by large holders and the shift in market sentiment from distribution to accumulation suggest a stabilizing market. As noted by , the recent $15.79 million Bitcoin purchase by a dormant whale underscores growing confidence in a reversal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's path to $100,000 hinges on a delicate balance of technical resilience, macroeconomic clarity, and whale-driven accumulation. While the Fed's policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pose near-term risks, the confluence of institutional demand, on-chain strength, and historical liquidity zones creates a compelling case for a bullish breakout. Investors should closely monitor the $75K support level and institutional ETF flows, as these will likely dictate the next phase of Bitcoin's trajectory.