Is Bitcoin's Selling Pressure Easing, and What Does It Mean for Crypto Bulls?

Bitcoin's fourth quarter of 2025 has been marked by persistent selling pressure, with the asset posting its worst quarterly performance since 2018, declining over 22% amid a confluence of on-chain weakness, macroeconomic headwinds, and derivatives-driven volatility. However, recent technical and behavioral metrics suggest a nuanced picture: while bearish signals dominate, early signs of consolidation and strategic accumulation by institutional players may hint at a potential inflection point for crypto bulls.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum and Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin's technical indicators in Q4 2025 have painted a largely bearish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has deviated from its prior uptrend, moving decisively below the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has curled toward the signal line, signaling a potential bearish crossover. These metrics align with Bitcoin's price action, which remains below critical moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200), reinforcing the dominance of selling pressure across timeframes.

A rising wedge pattern-a technical formation often preceding a continuation of downtrends-has also emerged, with a breakdown potentially targeting support levels near $74,500 according to technical analysis. Analysts caution that failure to reclaim the $88,000 to $89,000 resistance zone could trigger further declines, with key supports at $83,000 and $80,000 becoming critical as analysts warn. Conversely, a successful rebound above $85,000 might catalyze a short-term rally toward $94,000, though this remains contingent on improved on-chain demand as market analysis suggests.

Behavioral Metrics: Demand Vacuum and Institutional Accumulation

Bitcoin's fourth quarter has seen on-chain data reveal a stark demand vacuum, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs transitioning to net redemptions, shedding approximately 24,000 BTC in aggregate holdings. Exchange-traded product (ETP) investors have similarly reduced exposure, reflecting broader uncertainty according to market data. Meanwhile, derivatives markets have amplified volatility, with record $28.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to expire on Deribit, heightening sensitivity around key price levels as reported by market analysts.

Yet, amid this bearish backdrop, institutional activity has diverged. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have accumulated 42,000 BTC in December 2025, signaling strategic long-term positioning. This contrasts with weak retail-driven speculation and declining funding rates in perpetual futures, which hit their lowest levels since late 2023. VanEck's analysis underscores this duality, noting that while on-chain metrics remain subdued, improving liquidity and corporate accumulation could counterbalance softer demand as market research indicates.

Implications for Crypto Bulls: Consolidation or Deeper Correction?

The interplay of technical and behavioral factors raises a critical question: is Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase, or does the current weakness presage a deeper bear market? While the asset remains range-bound between $85,000 and $93,000, the market remains vulnerable to further corrections. Analysts project a potential pullback toward the $45,000–$67,000 range by September 2026 if bearish momentum persists as market forecasts suggest.

However, crypto bulls may find solace in the accumulation by DATs and the possibility of a year-end rally. Late December saw a surge in open interest and positive funding rates, suggesting aggressive long positions and anticipation of a short-term rebound according to market data. Additionally, the U.S. dollar's decline and shifting macroeconomic conditions could eventually favor Bitcoin, though institutional caution and tightening liquidity remain near-term risks as market analysis indicates.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's selling pressure in Q4 2025 reflects a market grappling with divergent forces: weak retail demand and derivatives-driven volatility on one hand, and institutional accumulation and improving liquidity on the other. While technical indicators and behavioral metrics predominantly signal bearish momentum, the emergence of strategic buying by DATs and potential consolidation phases offer cautious optimism for crypto bulls. The coming months will hinge on Bitcoin's ability to reclaim key resistance levels and sustain on-chain demand, with the broader macroeconomic environment serving as a critical wildcard.