Bitcoin Sees Key Bottom Signal as BTC Eyes Unique $101K Bear Market Reclaim

Bitcoin remains below its 50-week moving average, raising concerns among investors. This technical indicator, which reflects the average price over 50 weeks, has functioned historically as dynamic support or resistance during different market cycles. The current situation echoes past periods of prolonged deviation beneath this level, often preceding major price corrections.

The 50-week SMA is widely used by traders to assess long-term momentum. When Bitcoin trades above it, it signals strong uptrend momentum. Conversely, extended trading below it indicates weakening momentum, potentially leading to significant corrections. Analysts have noted this pattern could result in a price drop of at least 50%, bringing Bitcoin to levels as low as $50,000.

Recent technical analysis highlights multiple potential support zones. These include the April 2025 lows at $74,000 and the July 2024 highs at $68,000, which align with the 200-week exponential moving average. This convergence of technical levels makes the $68,000–$74,000 range a high-probability zone for trend reversal following a correction.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin's failure to reclaim the 50-week SMA since October 2023 suggests ongoing weakness in the market. This has led to speculation that the price could test the 200-week EMA for the first time since the start of the current bull cycle. Historical patterns show that such corrections are not uncommon and often serve as reset phases for long-term growth.

The current consolidation pattern has persisted for weeks, indicating a lack of strong directional movement. This has been further reinforced by the absence of major positive catalysts and the continued influence of macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate uncertainty and dollar strength.

Technical breakdowns, including the dropping below key moving averages, suggest that Bitcoin may continue to trend lower in the short term. Analysts like Ali Martinez have highlighted the need for Bitcoin to break through these levels to avoid further corrections.

How Markets Responded

Market sentiment remains bearish, with weak attempts to bounce despite being in oversold conditions. This suggests a lack of conviction among traders and has contributed to the prolonged consolidation.

Bitcoin's current price of $90,605 represents a 28% decline from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. This has led to increased scrutiny as investors weigh the likelihood of further declines.

The broader macroeconomic environment has also played a role. The Federal Reserve's cuts have not been sufficient to ease concerns about the strength of risk assets. The dollar's strength against major currencies has also created headwinds for dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts have identified several key levels that could determine Bitcoin's near-term direction. The 50-week SMA and 200-week EMA are considered critical thresholds that could signal a potential reversal.

James Wynn and Brannigan Barrett have both predicted that Bitcoin could test the $68,000 level, which serves as a major support point. This aligns with the technical analysis of a potential 25% decline from current levels.

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains speculative. While the current correction may be seen as a bear market episode, historical patterns suggest that major bull cycles often require such corrections to reset sentiment and create sustainable foundations for the next phase of growth.