Bitcoin's Scarcity Surge: Corporate Demand Outpaces Mining Supply, Fueling Year-End Rally

Source: [1] Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Price Prediction Suggests BTC Will “Move Up Smartly Again Toward the End of the Year” (https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/michael-saylors-bitcoin-price-prediction-suggests-btc-will-move-up-to-a-new-all-time-high-by-end-of-2025/)

[2] Michael Saylor predicts a strong Bitcoin recovery by the end of the year (https://www.cointribune.com/en/michael-saylor-predicts-a-strong-bitcoin-recovery-by-the-end-of-the-year/)

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Bitcoin’s price action in early September 2025 has drawn renewed attention to Michael Saylor’s forecast of a year-end rally, with the cryptocurrency trading at $112,838 after rebounding from a two-week low near $111,000. Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, reiterated his bullish stance, stating that Bitcoin will “move up smartly again toward the end of the year” as corporate adoption and supply dynamics create upward pressure. This prediction aligns with technical indicators showing a consolidation pattern above critical support levels, including the $112,000 Fibonacci retracement and the $109,899 bull-bear dividing line .

The supply-demand imbalance is central to Saylor’s argument. He highlighted that corporate entities and ETFs are purchasing Bitcoin at a rate exceeding its natural supply from mining. Daily corporate purchases average 1,755 BTC, while ETFs add another 1,430 BTC, outpacing the 900 BTC produced daily by miners. This net demand excess of 2,285 BTC per day creates scarcity, which Saylor attributes to sustained price appreciation. “Companies buying more than the natural supply being created by miners,” he explained, noting this dynamic mirrors historical gold-backed credit systems .

Technical analysis supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $112,000 has positioned it to test the $114,000–$115,000 resistance zone, a threshold that, if breached, could trigger a retest of August highs near $124,000. Conversely, a breakdown below $112,000 risks a correction to $107,000 or the psychological $100,000 level. The RSI has recovered from oversold conditions to neutral territory at 51, and the Fear & Greed Index stands at 43, indicating cautious optimism. LMAX strategist Joel Kruger noted that historically strong Q4 seasonality and institutional demand could fuel a year-end rally, though immediate consolidation remains likely .

Corporate adoption further reinforces the bullish case. MicroStrategy’s 638,985 BTC treasury exemplifies the shift of traditional companies toward Bitcoin as a reserve asset, replacing dividends and buybacks. Saylor envisions a future where Bitcoin-backed credit instruments dominate, drawing parallels to gold’s 300-year role in global finance. This trend is amplified by institutional ETF inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT maintaining consistent accumulation despite short-term volatility .

Market sentiment analysis underscores the potential for a late-year surge. Historical patterns show October–December as traditionally bullish for crypto, and Saylor’s vision of Bitcoin as “digital gold” aligns with growing institutional recognition. Policymakers in Washington have engaged with Saylor’s treasury model, signaling broader acceptance of Bitcoin’s role in national economic strategy. However, risks remain, including the $1.62 billion in leveraged liquidations recorded in early September, attributed to technical factors rather than fundamental weakness .

Price prediction models suggest a range of $119,480 to $126,139 for September 2025, with year-end targets exceeding $124,000 driven by supply shortages. For a rally to materialize, Bitcoin must sustain volume above 50,000 BTC daily and maintain the $109,899 support level. Saylor’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory—projecting it as the foundation of a digital financial system—contrasts with shorter-term uncertainties, but the confluence of corporate demand, technical strength, and seasonal factors positions the asset for a robust year-end performance .