Bitcoin's Scarcity Reaches 12-Year High as M2 Ratio Surges

Global asset manager ARK Invest has highlighted a significant milestone in its June 2025 Bitcoin Monthly Report. The ratio of the global M2 money supply to Bitcoin supply has reached its highest point in 12 years, underscoring Bitcoin’s scarcity in contrast to the expanding global liquidity. This revelation is crucial as it emphasizes Bitcoin’s fixed supply, which stands in stark contrast to the ever-increasing M2 money supply.

According to ARK Invest’s report, each Bitcoin now represents approximately $5.7 million of the global M2 money supply. This ratio is the highest seen since Bitcoin’s early years. The report details that the global M2 supply is growing while Bitcoin’s issuance rate is decreasing due to its halving cycle. ARK Invest anticipates that this ratio will continue to rise as Bitcoin’s supply growth diminishes further. This scarcity signal strengthens Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat currency dilution, as fewer new Bitcoins enter circulation.

The M2-to-Bitcoin ratio is a key metric for many investors, as it helps them understand Bitcoin’s relative scarcity against global liquidity. The M2 supply includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money, serving as a core measure of the global money supply. In contrast, Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with the last Bitcoin expected to be mined around 2140. As the M2 supply rises and Bitcoin’s supply remains fixed, each Bitcoin theoretically absorbs more global liquidity over time. Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has often stated that Bitcoin could act as a hedge against monetary debasement when central banks expand liquidity.

For Bitcoin investors and analysts, this development has several implications. Firstly, a higher M2 ratio supports the thesis that Bitcoin’s scarcity could protect wealth long-term, positioning it as a potential store of value. Secondly, some view Bitcoin as an alternative to gold when fiat supply expands aggressively, making it a macro hedge. However, investors should remain cautious, as volatility in the market requires prudent risk management.

ARK Invest is a global investment firm founded by Cathie Wood, known for its focus on disruptive innovation and in-depth research reports. The M2 money supply includes physical cash, checking accounts, and easily liquid assets, serving as a standard measure of how much money circulates in an economy. Bitcoin’s supply is hard-coded to a maximum of 21 million coins, with new coins released through mining rewards that halve approximately every four years.